Uzbek Soum Starts September Supported by Strong Fundamentals

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Uzbek soum stood at approximately 11,780 soums per US dollar as of 3 September 2026, maintaining stable levels after ending August near its strongest points in recent months.

The national currency remained virtually unchanged over the previous week, during which the exchange rate traded around 11,800 soums per US dollar.

Foreign currency inflows continue to bolster the soum's position. Remittance transfers to Uzbekistan rose by 13 percent year-on-year in the first half of the year, reaching US$9.3 billion while demonstrating broader geographic diversification. Concurrently, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan's key policy rate of 14 percent continues to support local-currency savings and curb domestic demand for foreign exchange.

Broader economic performance has provided additional support. In the first half of the year, Uzbekistan's GDP grew by 8.5 percent year-on-year, fixed capital investment increased by 17.5 percent, and retail trade turnover expanded by more than 20 percent. While this economic growth boosts incomes and capital inflows, it also elevates import demand and increases foreign currency requirements for businesses and households.

The Central Bank maintains a tight monetary policy stance, holding its key rate at 14 percent while projecting an annual inflation rate of approximately 6.5 percent for 2026. The regulator identified robust domestic demand, fiscal expenditures, and secondary effects from energy tariff increases as primary economic risks.

The combination of a high real interest rate and decelerating inflation remains positive for the exchange rate. Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova forecasts the US dollar to trade within a range of 11,700 to 11,950 soums over the coming week.

Anna Bodrova,
Analyst at Alpari