Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — Tashkent ranked third among 80 cities worldwide for the pace of change in a new Boston Consulting Group (BCG) study, “Built for Change: Cities of Choice 4.0”, published on 29 September 2026.
Among comparable cities in Central Asia and the Caspian region, Almaty scored 53 points and Astana 52, followed by Baku with 49 and Tashkent with 45, BCG said.
The study is based on an analysis of more than 200 indicators, over 5 million observations and a survey of 24,000 residents. BCG assesses cities across five dimensions: pace of change, economic opportunities, quality of the urban environment, social capital and interaction with government. Objective statistical data account for 80% of the assessment, while residents’ views account for 20%.
For comparison purposes, cities were divided into five socioeconomic groups based on GDP per capita and population. Tashkent, Almaty, Astana and Baku were placed in the group of mid-sized emerging cities with GDP per capita of up to US$25,000 and metropolitan populations of up to 4 million. The same group includes Dammam, Mecca, Medina and Ulaanbaatar.
All four cities from the region ranked among the global top 20 for pace of change. Tashkent scored 88 points, behind only Shenzhen with 92 and Riyadh with 91. Astana scored 77 points, Almaty 71 and Baku 64.
According to BCG, Kazakhstan’s cities have a more balanced profile and strong positions in economic opportunities and interaction with government. Resident support for the city stood at 86 points in Astana and 85 in Almaty.
“We see an interesting combination: Almaty and Astana already have strong economic and institutional foundations and continue to change rapidly. For a city, this is a very good starting position. But the next stage is usually more difficult than the previous one: economic growth and institutional capacity need to be translated into the everyday quality of the urban environment, including by initiating its renewal,” said Ekaterina Shapochka, BCG Partner and Director, Head of the company’s Global Cities Development Center and one of the study’s authors.
The study notes that rapid growth increases pressure on urban infrastructure. From 2015 to 2025, Astana’s population grew by approximately 78%, while Shymkent’s increased by 46% and Almaty’s by 39%.
According to BCG’s forecast, the three largest cities in Kazakhstan could account for more than 31% of the country’s population by 2035, compared with approximately 25% today and 19% a decade ago.
The number of passenger cars in Central Asian cities increased by approximately 22% between 2021 and 2025, the highest figure among the regional groups covered by the study.
According to BCG’s preliminary estimate, Almaty, Astana and Shymkent will require at least US$13.7 billion in additional infrastructure investment through 2035, excluding housing construction. The actual amount could be higher.
BCG said municipal and national budgets, as well as conventional public-private partnerships, would not be sufficient for all types of projects. The company proposes attracting private and institutional capital, using co-investment and directing part of the value generated by urban development towards the next cycle of infrastructure projects.
“The first step is to create a transparent portfolio of infrastructure projects for five, 10 and 15 years and determine the most appropriate financing model for each: budget funding, PPPs, joint area development or institutional capital.
“The second is to establish a professional investment function on the city’s side that can prepare projects, work with investors and manage the economics of urban land and assets.
“The third is to link these decisions to the city’s master plan and economic strategy,” said Mikhail Volkov, BCG Partner and Managing Director and Head of the company’s Kazakhstan office.
BCG was founded in 1963 and has more than 100 offices in over 50 countries. The company opened offices in Tashkent and Baku in 2022 and in Almaty in 2024.
