Soum Continues to Strengthen Amid Stable Macroeconomic Situation

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — By 25 June 2026, a noticeable strengthening of the national currency against the US dollar has been recorded in the foreign exchange market of Uzbekistan. This assessment of the situation is provided by Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova.

A week after the previous market revaluation, the US dollar exchange rate decreased to 11,990 soums, indicating a strengthening of the soum's position by 0.47%. This dynamic replaced a period of relative stagnation last week, which, in turn, had been preceded by a moderate weakening of the soum triggered by a drop in global gold prices and general volatility on international financial platforms.

The consistent monetary policy of the regulator serves as a fundamental factor in the stabilization of the exchange rate. Following its June meeting, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan decided to retain the main rate at 14% per annum.

This step was taken against the background of a steady slowdown in inflationary processes: in May of this year, the general inflation level in the country decreased to 5.5%, while the core inflation rate stood at 5.7%.

According to the official forecast of the Central Bank, inflation is expected to be within 6.5% by the end of the year, while gross domestic product growth rates will remain at a high level—from 7% to 7.5%. At the same time, analysts point out short-term pro-inflationary risks associated with the planned increase in domestic tariffs for energy resources.

Additional macroeconomic stability for the national currency is guaranteed by the country's solid volume of gold and foreign exchange reserves, which increased to US$70.9 billion, partly due to high prices for precious metals in previous periods.

The combination of tight monetary regulation measures and an impressive financial safety cushion minimizes the sensitivity of the soum to negative external factors.

According to expert estimates, at the end of June and in the first ten days of July, the exchange rate in the dollar/soum pair will be held within the predicted range of 11,950 to 12,120 soums per dollar.