Uzbekistan Business Climate Improves in First Quarter of 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Central Bank of Uzbekistan has published a business sentiment review based on the results of the first quarter of 2026. The study, conducted in April 2026 based on a survey of more than 2,487 entrepreneurs from all regions of the country, records the continuation of positive trends in the entrepreneurial environment: 64 percent of respondents reported an improvement in business conditions compared to the same period last year, when 56 percent of survey participants gave a similar assessment.

The indicator has remained above the 50 percent mark for two consecutive years, which indicates the sustainability of entrepreneurial confidence.

Entrepreneurs attribute the positive shifts primarily to the improved quality of banking services and expanded access to credit resources, an improved competitive environment, simplification of licensing procedures, and a reduction in administrative intervention. At the same time, factors such as the level of monopolization, tax administration, energy supply, and customs tariffs remained at the level of last year and continue to restrain a broader improvement in the business climate.

Economic activity in the first quarter grew noticeably. The share of entrepreneurs who recorded an increase in cargo transportation volumes, demand for additional labor, as well as production and orders, increased by 8–10 percentage points compared to the same quarter last year. The dynamics of orders are most indicative: the number of those reporting their growth increased by 11 percentage points and reached 57 percent. The most active growth was recorded in Tashkent Region, Navoiy, Andijan, Namangan, and Khorezm regions, predominantly driven by manufacturing, tourism, education, public catering, and agriculture.

The utilization of production capacities at an elevated level rose noticeably in Ferghana and Bukhara regions, while in Khorezm, Andijan, Samarkand, and Surxondaryo regions, this indicator decreased. Entrepreneurs operating in under-utilization mode cite disruptions in gas and electricity supply, complexities of the tax system, insufficient domestic demand, rising automobile fuel prices, and a shortage of working capital among the main reasons.

Sustainable activity was maintained in the labor market in the first quarter. The share of business entities reporting growth in demand for additional workers increased by 6 percentage points compared to the same period last year and reached 50 percent. Looking ahead, the most significant increase in labor demand is expected in Andijan, Namangan, Sirdaryo, and Navoiy regions, while employment in Jizzakh, Ferghana, Samarkand, and Surxondaryo regions is projected without significant changes. In terms of sectors, an increased demand for labor is expected in industry, construction, tourism, and agriculture.

In the financial sphere, the share of entrepreneurs reporting growth in debt obligations over the past three months decreased slightly to 38 percent. At the same time, expectations for additional lending remain at an increasing level: 49 percent of respondents expect growth in borrowing in the near future. The highest credit demand in the future is projected in Navoiy, Namangan, Andijan, and Sirdaryo regions, while a decrease is expected in Ferghana, Surxondaryo, and Jizzakh regions. In the sectoral breakdown, the greatest need for debt financing is expressed by subjects of construction, industry, consumer services, agriculture, and public catering.

In the medium term, business optimism continues to strengthen. According to the survey data, 71 percent of participants expressed confidence in the improvement of macroeconomic conditions in the upcoming period, against significantly lower indicators recorded since the beginning of 2025.

The regional picture of business sentiment demonstrates a generally positive but uneven dynamic. In Tashkent and Tashkent Region, 60 percent of entrepreneurs assessed business conditions as improved, which is 14 percentage points higher than the figure from a year ago. The most noticeable improvement was recorded in the public catering, manufacturing, agriculture, utilities, and education sectors. Order and production volumes in this region grew by 11 and 17 percentage points, respectively, relative to the same quarter last year. Seventy percent of Tashkent entrepreneurs expect an improvement in the economy and business environment in a three-year perspective.

In Bukhara, Navoiy, and Samarkand regions, 63 percent of entrepreneurs noted an improvement in business conditions. Positive changes are most noticeable in tourism, education, industry, and agriculture. The capacity utilization rate here decreased by 6 percentage points to 46 percent, while 60 percent of respondents expect growth in industrial production in the next quarter. The level of three-year optimism reached 73 percent, 11 percentage points higher than the figure from a year ago.

In the Ferghana Valley—in Andijan, Namangan, and Ferghana regions—65 percent of business entities stated an improvement in operating conditions, against 57 percent in the first quarter of 2025. Progress is particularly pronounced in the financial sector, agriculture, construction, and education. The share of enterprises operating at a high level of capacity utilization remained at 51 percent. Three-year business optimism in the region amounted to 73 percent.

In Kashkadarya and Surxondaryo regions, one of the highest indicators of business environment improvement was recorded: 70 percent of entrepreneurs assessed business conditions as improved, which is 9 percentage points higher than last year's value. The leaders in terms of positive assessments were medicine, manufacturing, crafts, education, transport, and consumer services. At the same time, capacity utilization decreased by 10 percentage points to 47 percent, which became one of the most noticeable regional declines in this indicator. Three-year optimism reached 73 percent.

In Jizzakh and Sirdaryo regions, 63 percent of entrepreneurs recorded an improvement in the business situation, 9 percentage points higher than last year's figure. The quality of banking services, availability of loans, competitive environment, and road infrastructure were named as key growth factors. The volume of orders grew by 5 percentage points to 55 percent. Capacity utilization decreased by 4 percentage points to 46 percent. Three-year optimism was 66 percent.

In Karakalpakstan and Khorezm Region, 60 percent of entrepreneurs assessed business conditions positively. The most pronounced improvement was noted in education, public catering, communications and information services, agriculture, and tourism. At the same time, this region demonstrated the most significant decrease in production capacity utilization: the indicator fell from 51 percent in the first quarter of 2025 to 35 percent, which became the most significant decline among all regions. Entrepreneurs point to disruptions in power supply, tax complexities, high rental expenses, and a shortage of working capital. Three-year optimism in the region stood at 67 percent.

Thus, the Central Bank's business sentiment review based on the results of the first quarter of 2026 indicates the continuation of positive dynamics in the entrepreneurial environment of Uzbekistan, while structural constraints related to the reliability of energy supply, tax administration, and the availability of working capital financing persist. The level of business confidence for the medium-term perspective remains high in most regions of the country.