Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — As of 10 September 2026, the Uzbek soum is trading at around 11,780 per US dollar.
Over the past week, since our previous review, the exchange rate has remained virtually unchanged: on 3 September, the dollar was also trading near 11,780 soums. Following a notable strengthening in August, the foreign exchange market has shifted into consolidation at levels favorable for the soum.
The fundamental backdrop remains relatively favorable. The soum is supported by growth in remittances, the Central Bank’s high policy rate of 14% and strong economic activity. In the first half of the year, Uzbekistan’s GDP grew by 8.5% year on year, while remittances from abroad increased by 13% to US$9.3 billion. These flows provide additional foreign currency supply and partially offset strong demand for imports.
Inflation remains an important factor. Following the June increase, which was partly linked to higher energy tariffs, price pressures are gradually stabilizing.
According to the Central Bank’s estimates, inflation will reach around 6.5% by the end of the year. However, strong domestic demand does not yet allow for a rapid shift toward monetary policy easing. As a result, the high real interest rate continues to support the soum.
The external environment is also contributing to the national currency’s strength, with the DXY dollar index below 99 points.
At the same time, strong economic growth is stimulating imports and businesses’ demand for foreign currency, while weak gold export volumes are limiting one of the traditional sources of foreign currency earnings. This is constraining the potential for further rapid strengthening of the soum.
Over the coming week, the dollar/soum pair is expected to remain within the range of 11,700–11,950 soums, according to our expectations.
Anna Bodrova,
Alpari analyst
