Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Uzbekistan’s economy to grow by 7.8% in 2026, compared with 7.7% in 2025. Growth is projected to slow to 6.5% in 2027.
The estimates are included in the IMF’s October World Economic Outlook report, titled Resilience Under Pressure, Urgent Choices.
According to the IMF, inflation in Uzbekistan will continue to decline. Average annual consumer price inflation stood at 8.8% in 2025 and is projected to reach 6.9% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027.
Unemployment is also expected to fall, from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027.
The outlook for the external sector is less favourable. Uzbekistan’s current account deficit is projected to widen from 3.9% of GDP in 2025 to 5.1% in 2026, before narrowing to 4.6% of GDP in 2027.
Uzbekistan is expected to grow considerably faster than the average for the Caucasus and Central Asia. For this group, the IMF forecasts growth of 5.2% in 2026 and 5.0% in 2027, following 6.2% in 2025. Average inflation across the group is projected at 8% in 2026 and 6.7% in 2027.
Among neighbouring countries, only Kyrgyzstan is forecast to record faster growth than Uzbekistan in 2026, at 9%. The IMF expects Tajikistan to grow by 7.3%, Georgia by 7.2%, Armenia by 5.5% and Kazakhstan by 4.4%. Turkmenistan’s economy is projected to expand by 2.4%, while Azerbaijan’s is expected to grow by 1.7%.
The report notes that countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia continue to benefit from commodity prices, remittances and ongoing reforms.
The IMF takes a considerably more cautious view of the broader Middle East and Central Asia region. Its economy is projected to contract by 0.3% in 2026 before growing by 6.3% in 2027.
Compared with the April forecast, the IMF has lowered its 2026 growth estimate for the region by 2.2 percentage points and raised its 2027 projection by 1.7 percentage points. The fund attributes the revision to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for longer than anticipated in the spring.
The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. For emerging market and developing economies, it projects growth of 3.7% and 4.4%, respectively.
