Alpari Forecasts Uzbek Soum at 11,800–12,050 per Dollar

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.uz) — The Uzbek soum remains relatively stable against the US dollar, although the national currency has weakened slightly over the past week.

According to Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova, the USD/UZS pair could remain in the range of 11,800–12,050 soums per dollar during the new week in August.

As of 13 August, the US dollar stood at 11,928 soums. The soum weakened by 0.39% over the week. A week earlier, the national currency had strengthened by more than 1%, while its appreciation in July amounted to 0.69%.

According to Bodrova, the soum is supported by the Central Bank’s policy rate of 14%, the attractiveness of savings in the national currency and capital inflows amid economic growth.

The situation in the gold market remains an additional factor. In the second quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan ranked among the three largest gold buyers among central banks worldwide. The country’s gold reserves increased by 16 tons. Larger net purchases during the period were recorded by Poland, at 51 tons, and China, at 33 tons. Kazakhstan purchased 15 tons.

Central banks worldwide purchased 289 tons of gold in the second quarter, 62% more than in the same period a year earlier. According to data cited by the analyst, this was a record volume for the second quarter.

At the same time, foreign trade is putting pressure on the soum. According to Bodrova, gold exports remain significantly below last year’s levels, reducing foreign-currency earnings.

The analyst also noted a risk associated with the high share of gold in reserves. A decline in global precious-metal prices could reduce their value.

According to Bodrova, support and pressure factors on the national currency are currently balancing each other, leaving no grounds for a sharp move by the USD/UZS pair outside the established range.