Analysts at Marsh & McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group note the risk of a second outbreak of COVID-19
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- The World Economic Forum and international insurance companies Marsh&McLennan and Zurich Insurance Group conducted a survey among 347 leading world experts on the most significant risks associated with the coronavirus pandemic and the likelihood of their occurrence within the next 1.5 year, the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan reported.
According to most experts, economic, social, geopolitical and technological risks can have a significant negative impact on the position of many countries and the standard of living of people. The greatest risk to society is economic damage, as millions of people lose their jobs and are forced to stay at home.
In particular, against the backdrop of massive job cuts worldwide, 69% of experts predict a prolonged global recession. At the same time, experts emphasize the likelihood of accelerating structural changes in the global economy, which will have far-reaching consequences. Among the big risks is the increase in debt for many developing countries, which take out loans and loans from international organizations and developed countries.
Despite the global efforts of countries to smooth the infection curve, analysts note the risk of a re-outbreak of COVID-19, including after the abolition of quarantine. In addition, 21% of experts point to an increase in social inequality, and 18% predict that citizens’ distrust of the government will increase.
49% of respondents believe that in light of the global crisis, restrictions on trade and movement of goods and services will continue to increase. Moreover, this problem was brewing even before the coronavirus pandemic. In this regard, according to analysts, world trade in the current year. may fall by 13-32%, and foreign direct investment is likely to decline by another 30-40%. In addition, the intensification of confrontation between global powers, in particular between China and the United States, is clearly recorded, including due to the outbreak of the coronavirus and the consequences of the pandemic.
In general, experts agree that the negative economic, social and geopolitical consequences of the coronavirus pandemic are long-term.
At the same time, the greatest concern among specialists is caused by a prolonged global recession, bankruptcy of many enterprises and an increase in unemployment in all countries of the world.