Uzbekistan faces worsening drought amid five-year climate crisis

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan is at the center of an unprecedented drought affecting Central Asia and the Middle East since 2021, according to a new report by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre.

The period from 2021 to 2025 was the warmest five-year span since 1981 for most parts of the region. The most extreme temperature anomalies were recorded in lowland areas of Uzbekistan.

Record temperatures and precipitation deficit

In March 2026, temperature anomalies in northern Uzbekistan reached 2.5°C above the long-term average. Despite variability in soil moisture levels across regions, conditions remain critical due to accumulated precipitation deficits and strong dependence on irrigation.

Uzbekistan is heavily dependent on two major transboundary rivers — the Amu Darya and Syr Darya — which are fed by mountain snow from the Pamir and Tien Shan ranges in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Impact on agriculture

Despite worsening climatic conditions, production of key grain crops in Uzbekistan has shown resilience due to irrigation. According to FAO data, wheat production increased by 3.7% in 2021–2024 compared to 2016–2020, driven by a 14% increase in yields, which offset a 9% reduction in sown areas.

Maize production increased by 65% due to a 56% expansion in cultivated area. Rice production rose by 7%, despite a 23% decline in sown areas, offset by a 40% increase in yields.

However, the ASAP agricultural monitoring system recorded a significant increase in drought alerts across the region, particularly in an area covering northeastern Iran, southern Kazakhstan, and northwestern Afghanistan, with its center in Turkmenistan.

Long-term risks

Despite temporary production stability supported by irrigation, experts warn of growing risks. A decline in river runoff is projected for eastern regions of Uzbekistan in April 2026.

A key question remains the sustainability of the irrigation system: whether the region will be able to maintain production levels if declining precipitation continues, leading to reduced snow cover and depletion of groundwater resources.

Outlook for the coming months

Seasonal forecasts combining multiple modeling systems indicate above-average moisture conditions across the Middle East and Central Asia for April–June 2026. However, the Copernicus Climate Change Service forecasts warmer-than-usual conditions in both regions.

Experts emphasize that while seasonal forecasts suggest some relief from drought conditions in 2026, overall conditions remain severe, and the humanitarian impacts of the five-year drought continue to unfold.