S&P Assigns B-/B Ratings to Uzbekistan’s Hayot Bank

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — S&P Global Ratings has assigned long-term and short-term issuer credit ratings of “B-/B” with a stable outlook to Hayot Bank, reflecting the bank’s limited market position, rapid loan portfolio expansion, and elevated risks associated with its development stage.

The agency said the rating is driven by the bank’s niche business model and relatively short operating history. Additional factors include an aggressive capital growth strategy and an expected deterioration in asset quality as the rapidly expanded loan portfolio matures. The bank’s baseline assessment is anchored in Uzbekistan’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), with an anchor of “b+” based on an economic risk score of “7” and an industry risk score of “9”.

S&P emphasized that the current assessment does not incorporate external support, as the bank is privately owned.

Analysts expect Hayot Bank to continue pursuing its niche strategy focused on small and medium-sized enterprises and potentially achieve a return on equity above 20% by 2027 if the current strategy is maintained.

According to S&P, as of 1 April 2026, the bank’s total assets stood at 7.4 trillion Uzbek soums, or about US$620 million, ranking it 24th among 34 banks in Uzbekistan with an estimated market share of around 1%. The bank began operations after receiving its license in 2023 and posted its first profit in 2025, with a return on equity of 3.3%.

S&P placed particular focus on the bank’s capitalization. As of end-March 2026, the capital adequacy ratio stood at 14.6% against a regulatory minimum of 12%, while the Tier 1 ratio was 10.1%, only slightly above the minimum requirement. By April, it rose to 10.4%. The agency noted that further loan growth, potentially reaching around 55% in 2026, will require additional capital injections from shareholders, who have already indicated plans for further investment.

The bank’s risk profile is assessed as moderate but marked by high uncertainty due to concentration in the SME segment and a limited credit history. S&P projects that non-performing loans could rise to 6.5%–8% over the next two years, compared with 4.5% at the end of 2025, with coverage ratios of around 72%.

Hayot Bank’s funding model is primarily based on customer deposits, with a significant portion concentrated among a small number of large depositors. Liquidity is considered adequate, but deposit concentration is viewed as a risk factor.

The stable outlook reflects expectations of gradual capitalization strengthening supported by shareholders and improving operating profitability.

A downgrade could result from weakening capital or liquidity positions, while an upgrade is unlikely in the near term and would depend on sustained improvements in asset quality and profitability.