World Bank: Uzbekistan to Join Top Three Fastest-Growing Economies in Central Asia in 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan is set to become one of the three fastest-growing developing economies in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region in 2026, according to the World Bank. The January edition of the Global Economic Prospects report predicts that alongside Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan will demonstrate some of the highest GDP growth rates among the 22 developing economies in the region.

The World Bank estimates that the average economic growth in the ECA region will reach 2.4% in 2026. Domestic demand is expected to be supported by lower inflation, improved financial conditions, active utilization of European Union funds, and increased defense spending.

Central Asia remains the subregion with the fastest economic growth. In 2025, the combined GDP of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan grew by 6.2%, with a projected slowdown to 5% in 2026. Private consumption is expected to weaken due to high inflation, while exports may decline amid a slowdown in the Russian economy. Stricter Russian migration policies are also anticipated to reduce remittance inflows to the subregion.

Kazakhstan’s growth is projected to slow to 4.5% due to stabilized oil production and lower global commodity prices, which will affect export revenues and budget inflows. Meanwhile, despite the expected moderation, Kyrgyzstan (6.5%), Tajikistan (6.2%), and Uzbekistan (6.0%) are projected to maintain high growth rates, supported by elevated global gold prices, keeping these countries among the regional GDP leaders.

The ECA region’s outlook remains subject to significant risks. A potential prolongation or escalation of the conflict stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could sustain high geopolitical uncertainty and weaken economic activity. Additionally, more frequent extreme weather events, including droughts and heat waves, pose threats to agricultural productivity, water resources, and infrastructure, particularly in Central Asia.

At the same time, regional economic growth could be bolstered by deeper integration and new international agreements. The report highlights the signing of a joint declaration on strategic partnership between the EU and Central Asian countries in Samarkand (April 2025), the EU-Uzbekistan Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement in Brussels (October 2025), and a joint statement of intent on economic cooperation between the United States and Central Asian countries in Washington (November 2025).

Despite the existing risks, Uzbekistan continues to rank among the most dynamic economies in the region, ensuring steady growth and active participation in international initiatives.