Fitch Revises TBC Uzbekistan’s Outlook to Stable; Rating Affirmed at ‘BB-’

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — On 28 November 2025, international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings revised the outlook on the long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) of Uzbekistan-based Joint Stock Commercial Bank TBC BANK (TBCU) from Negative to Stable.

At the same time, the bank’s long-term ratings in both foreign and local currency were affirmed at BB-, and TBCU’s Viability Rating (VR) remained unchanged at b.

The decision follows a similar revision of the outlook on TBC BANK JSC, registered in Georgia, to Stable, with the rating affirmed at BB.

Fitch notes that the key rating factor for TBCU is potential support from its parent, TBC, reflected in the bank’s Support Rating (SSR) at bb-. TBC is the main bank of the TBC BANK Group PLC and the controlling shareholder of TBCU.

The agency highlights that TBCU’s SSR is one notch below TBC’s rating due to the Uzbek bank’s moderate role in the group and its relatively small contribution to overall group metrics. However, Fitch expects TBCU’s contribution to gradually increase. The cross-border nature of possible support is also considered, as TBC and TBCU operate in different jurisdictions.

In assessing shareholder support, Fitch considers the significant reputational risk for TBC in the event of a TBCU default, while noting the relatively low cost of such support due to TBCU’s small size—at the end of 2024, its assets represented only about 6% of the group’s total assets.

Fitch emphasizes that TBCU’s long-term ratings are sensitive to changes in the parent bank’s ratings. A downgrade of TBC or a diminished role of TBCU within the group could lead to a reduction in SSR and TBCU’s long-term rating; however, the agency does not consider this scenario likely.

An upgrade of TBCU’s ratings would only be possible if the parent bank’s ratings improve or TBCU’s role within the group strengthens, increasing the likelihood of support. Currently, such conditions are not present.