Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - EastFruit specialists completed a preliminary assessment of damage to stone fruits (cherries, apricots, peaches and plums), as well as almonds in Uzbekistan from the second wave of frosts, which swept across the country in mid-March. As we expected, the damage to stone fruits increased dramatically.

Since Uzbekistan is the second largest supplier of peaches, nectarines and plums to Russia and the main supplier of fresh apricots to the market of this country, a decrease in the yield of these fruits will significantly affect stone fruit prices in Russia. The decrease in the apricot yield will have an even greater impact on the dried fruit market, because dried apricots are a key type of dried fruit exported. Russian importers will need to look for alternatives to Uzbek fresh and dried fruits.

The first wave of frosts at the end of February 2021, after a period of abnormal heat that provoked early flowering, caused serious damage to the early apricot in the middle zone of Uzbekistan. You can read about the estimated losses after the first wave here. And if the partial loss of the early apricot harvest was unpleasant, but not critical, now the situation for many gardeners is becoming threatening, because the second frosts led to an increase in losses not only on apricots, but also on other types of stone fruits, which managed to bloom by mid-March.

At the moment, Uzbekistan is expected to miss more than half of its apricot and almond harvest. Also, in some regions, the harvest of sweet cherry is almost completely lost, although in other species the harvest is still quite good. Losses for peaches and plums may be slightly lower than for apricots and almonds, but perhaps comparable to those for cherries. And the most important thing is the quality of the products. Serious problems are expected here, since frost during flowering and even before flowering, as a rule, leads to fruit defects and interferes with full pollination.

It should also be remembered that there are still several months of growing season ahead, which can lead to new unpleasant surprises. However, we will tell you more about which regions suffered more and which less, as well as where stone fruits and almonds survived the weather better.

We interviewed more than 30 gardeners and farmers from different regions of Uzbekistan, which together form 95% of the total production of fruits and berries in the republic (in accordance with data from the report of the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan on the volume of agricultural, forestry and fishery products for 2020).

In the general picture of damage to the harvest of stone fruit, the Khorezm region and the Republic of Karakalpakstan stand out positively, where the estimate of the loss of apricot harvest is only about 10%. Unlike other areas, these regions did not experience any abnormal warming in February this year. For example, the average temperature in Urgench (the administrative center of the Khorezm region) was noticeably lower than in the rest of the country, and only once in the entire month the temperature exceeded +15 degrees. In Nukus (the administrative center of Karakalpakstan), the average temperature in February was even lower. Such weather conditions ensured the so-called calendar transition to spring and did not allow fruit trees to "wake up too early", which could not be said about other regions of Uzbekistan. Obviously, gardeners of Khorezm and Karakalpakstan this year will be able to make good money on apricot, because a lower harvest in the country could lead to a significant increase in average prices for these fruits.

As can be seen from the table, in the overwhelming majority of regions of Uzbekistan - agricultural producers (in 9 out of 13), the loss of apricot yield is estimated from 40% to 90%. These regions of the republic form 88% of the total production of fruits and berries. As it turned out from the results of a survey of gardeners and farmers, in these regions, most of the late apricot varieties retained their harvest, on the contrary, losses on early varieties and the average ripening period are estimated from 70% to 99%.

According to a farmer from the city of Kuvasay, Fergana region, Azizbek Khamraliev, late apricot varieties, relatively new for Uzbekistan and adapted to local conditions (for example, the Orange Ruby variety) look more frost-resistant. So far, according to the gardener, he has not noticed any damage to the harvest of this and other new late varieties. In his opinion, the establishment of apricot orchards by distributing the area of the orchard between varieties from early to late can ensure a uniform harvest from May to September inclusive, which is a global trend (see the presentation of Andrey Yarmak, FAO economist for more details on this topic). Moreover, EastFruit analysts believe that this method of planting apricot orchards will also minimize damage from such frosts, since later varieties are more protected in such situations.

The apricots and almonds were the most “affected” by two successive frost waves. Losses of apricot harvest on average in Uzbekistan can reach 60-65% at the moment. Almond yield losses are estimated within the same limits, or even slightly higher.

About half of peaches, nectarines and plums in Uzbekistan can be lost.

The cherry crop seems to have suffered slightly in the Fergana Valley. However, even here, 5-15% of the harvest may be missing, and problems with the quality of the fruits may also arise. But in the metropolitan area, cherries have been lost, according to preliminary estimates, almost completely - farmers expect to receive only about 10% of what they had previously expected. In Bukhara and Samarkand regions, cherries will be harvested only 50-70% of the expected harvest. On average in the country, crop losses in sweet cherry are estimated at 25-30%.

According to farmer Fazliddin Abdurakhimov from Andijan region (Jalalkuduk district), today’s estimates of damage are preliminary, the damage from the February and March frosts may turn out to be more than it is now assumed: “Recent frosts could also affect even those types of stone fruits that have not yet blossomed by the time the cold weather sets in. Based on many years of experience, I can say that scenarios of the development of events cannot be ruled out, when frosts happened before flowering, and then after warming and subsequent flowering, the buds do not hold and fall out. Accordingly, we lose crops in these cases as well. Therefore, it will be possible to more accurately assess the damage from these frosts only in a few weeks”.

Several farmers surveyed have already noted that at present, the flowers of some fruit trees do not look “healthy”, but rather “dull”. Despite the fact that they bloomed after the February and March frosts, there is no certainty about the quantity and quality of the future harvest for them. In any case, apart from the loss of quantity, one should also expect a decrease in the quality of the fruit, since frosts during flowering, as a rule, lead to defects in the formation of the fruit, and in the case of cherries, they also interfere with full-fledged pollination.

Such significant losses, on the one hand, can lead to an increase in prices in the domestic fruit market, and, on the other hand, low-quality fruits are unlikely to be sold at a high price. The supply of raw materials for producers of juices, purees, concentrates and dried fruits will also decrease, which means that high prices should be expected here.

According to EastFruit, in 2020, Uzbekistan exported directly to the Russian market more than 217 thousand tons of fresh and dried fruits and nuts in the amount of about US$224 million. However, in 2021, obviously, the volume of Uzbek fruit exports to Russia will sharply decrease.