Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Economists are confident that changes in demand in real estate and auto markets are one of the main indicators of economic recovery after the crisis, since the demand for durable goods best reflects the consumer sentiment of the population.

The Center for Economic Research and Reform regularly analyzes changes in demand in the real estate and automobile markets. The increase in demand in these markets in January this year indicates a gradual recovery in economic growth in Uzbekistan.

Real estate market

As previously reported, before the introduction of quarantine restrictions related to the spread of coronavirus, the demand on the real estate market in the republic increased monthly by an average of 6-7%. Sale on real estate markets in Tashkent and Tashkent region accounts for 40-45% of the total market volume.

In January 2021, the number of real estate contracts concluded in the country increased by 17.9% compared to January 2020. In the city of Tashkent, which accounts for more than 30% of the real estate market, this figure was 26.9%.

By regions, the highest growth rates were observed in Bukhara, Andijan, Namangan and Samarkand regions. The number of completed real estate contracts in Jizzakh and Syrdarya regions decreased compared to January 2020.

It should be noted that the Center conducts a monthly survey that forms a picture of consumer sentiment (Consumer Sentiment Index). Analysis of the results of this survey and changes in demand in the real estate market in January of this year showed that an increase of 1% in the share of optimistic expectations of the population for the purchase of long-term goods leads to an increase of 1.5% in the number of real estate transactions.

Car market

Usually, the monthly growth of car sales in the primary and secondary markets in the republic is on average 2-3%. As a result of the introduction of strict quarantine measures from mid-March 2020, the number of registered and re-registered cars in March decreased by 17.3% compared to the same period in 2019 (by 34.6% compared to the previous month), and in April - by 73. 8% (by 63.1%) (Fig. 3).

Since May, the situation in the car market has begun to recover again. In particular, in June, car sales increased by 14.8% compared to the same period in 2019 (15.7% compared to the previous month). In August, this figure was 3.8% (54.3% to the previous month).

The demand in the car market also continued to grow in September-October. Compared to the corresponding period of 2019, sales increased in September by 29.5%, in October by 19.2%, in November by 9% and in December by 10%.

The demand of the population in the car market in January 2021 increased by 5.3% compared to January 2020. It should be noted that the dynamics of sales in the car market is cyclical, which is largely due to many factors (for example, a decrease in the supply of cars, a decrease in remittances). Usually, every year in January, the sale and purchase of cars is reduced by an average of 16-19% compared to December of the previous year. As you know, the growth of car sales in January is 5-6%, which is on average lower than in other months.

By region, the highest growth rates were observed in Samarkand and Surkhandarya regions.

The results of the analysis showed that an increase in the population of regions by 1% leads to an increase in car sales by 1.1%.

Khalilullokh Khamidov, Chief Researcher, CERR