Uzbekistan Risks Missing Chance to Cut Smoking Rates

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan faces a widening gap between its ambitions to reduce smoking and the practical measures capable of achieving those goals, according to a new analytical paper by the Path to Smoke-Free platform.

Official data show that the country has about 3.5 million smokers and 2.5 million users of nasvai. Tobacco use is linked to around 30,000 deaths annually. At the same time, Uzbekistan has banned a category of products that leading regulators, including the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and Germany’s Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), consider significantly less harmful than cigarettes.

Since May 2023, nicotine pouches have been illegal in the country, and electronic cigarettes were banned in November 2025. While the official goal of these restrictions is to protect public health, the results appear to be mixed.

According to estimates by Path to Smoke-Free, if current policies remain unchanged, Uzbekistan will reach “smoke-free” status — defined as a smoking rate of 5% or less — only by 2067. If the country adopted a comprehensive approach similar to Sweden’s model, this milestone could be achieved by 2041, while strategies similar to those used in the United Kingdom, New Zealand, and Japan could bring the timeline forward to 2046. Experts estimate that moving away from a strictly prohibitive policy could save up to 464,000 lives.

In practice, the ban on nicotine pouches has not reduced demand. Instead, consumption has shifted to the shadow market, where tens of millions of units are reportedly distributed illegally, outside quality control systems, age restrictions, and tax administration. Law enforcement agencies in Tashkent have confirmed multiple seizures of contraband products, indicating that the ban has contributed to the criminalization of supply while consumer demand remains stable.

Meanwhile, cigarettes continue to be sold freely across the country. Nasvai, a traditional smokeless tobacco product that, according to research from Kyoto University, may contain hazardous substances including pesticides, is not subject to similar restrictions. As a result, the current regulatory framework effectively penalizes products considered less risky while leaving the most harmful ones largely unchanged.

International experience suggests alternative approaches. Countries such as Sweden, the United Kingdom, Japan, and New Zealand have significantly reduced smoking rates by integrating innovative products and regulated markets into broader tobacco control strategies. In several Middle Eastern countries — including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia — nicotine pouches have been incorporated into national regulatory systems.

Regarding youth protection, digital age-verification tools, national registries, and licensed sales systems have proven effective in countries such as Greece and New Zealand, helping to reduce smoking among adults while protecting minors. These examples indicate that innovation combined with strict regulatory oversight may be more effective than outright bans in reducing tobacco consumption.

As a result, Uzbekistan’s current policy may limit the country’s ability to achieve its smoking reduction targets by stimulating the shadow market while leaving the most harmful products largely unchanged. Experts suggest that an effective strategy would require integrating regulated lower-risk products, modern control technologies, and international best practices.