Uzbekistan Projects GDP Growth Above 6% and Inflation of 5% by 2028

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan has unveiled its medium-term macroeconomic plan, targeting sustained GDP growth above 6% and a reduction of inflation to 5% by 2028, according to the draft state budget.

The government expects per capita GDP to surpass the $4,000 mark as early as 2026, despite slower growth among key trading partners. The 2026 budget message outlines an economic strategy aimed at maintaining high growth amid global uncertainty while structurally transforming the economy.

Under the government’s baseline scenario, Uzbekistan will continue to show one of the region’s highest growth rates. After an expected 7.0% expansion in 2025, GDP growth is projected at 6.6% in 2026 and 6.9% by 2028. In nominal terms, GDP is forecast to rise from 1,455 trillion soums in 2024 to 1,976 trillion soums in 2026, reaching 2,576 trillion soums by 2028.

The plan relies on domestic growth drivers and market diversification to offset potential weakness in external demand. According to International Monetary Fund data cited in the budget, Russia’s GDP is expected to grow just 0.5–1.5% in 2026, and China’s by 5.0%.

Raising living standards remains a key policy objective. Per capita GDP is projected to increase from $3,093 in 2024 to $3,589 in 2025, $4,026 in 2026, and $4,686 by 2028. Surpassing the $4,000 threshold will strengthen Uzbekistan’s position among lower-middle-income countries and bring it closer to the upper-middle-income bracket.

Price stability remains a priority. After inflation spiked to roughly 9.8% in 2024, the government and Central Bank plan strict targeting to bring consumer prices down to 7.8–7.9% in 2025, 7.0% in 2026, 5–6% in 2027, and 5% by 2028. Achieving this goal will require strong fiscal discipline, particularly given planned infrastructure investments.

Structural economic transformation will continue. The services sector will remain the main growth driver, accounting for about 48% of GDP, with market services expected to expand at double-digit rates of roughly 13–14% annually.

Industry is also set for steady growth, accelerating from 6.4% in 2026 to 6.9% by 2028. The construction sector, which experienced a boom in 2024–2025 with growth up to 12.7%, is expected to enter a “soft landing” phase with around 8% growth by 2028.

Agriculture will maintain stable but moderate growth of 4.1–4.3% annually, reflecting limited land and water resources and the need for more intensive agricultural technologies.