Uzbek Soums Volatility Surges 2.6-Fold in Early 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Volatility of the Uzbek soums against the US dollar increased 2.6 times in January–February 2026 compared with the same period in 2025, according to data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

The bilateral average daily volatility reached 32.1 soums, or 0.27%, up from 12.3 soums (0.09%) a year earlier. The dollar traded in the range of 12,025–12,137 soums in February 2026, compared with 12,877–12,920 soums at the start of 2025, reflecting an annual appreciation of the soums of roughly 6%.

The structure of trading sessions on the Uzbek Republican Currency Exchange (UzRVB) changed significantly. The share of “matching” system sessions accounted for 39.3% of total trading in January–February 2026, up nearly fourfold from 10.4% in the same period of 2025. Conversely, traditional call-auction sessions declined from 89.6% to 60.7%.

Market makers’ role strengthened notably in the matching sessions. The combined share of the five largest market participants rose from 20.6% in January–February 2025 to 34.9% in the same period of 2026, while the share of other participants fell from 79.4% to 65.1%.

Individuals significantly increased their currency transactions with banks. Sales of foreign currency by the public rose from US$2.651 billion in January–February 2025 to US$3.866 billion in January–February 2026, a 45.8% increase. Purchases also grew from US$1.648 billion to US$2.012 billion (+22.1%). The resulting positive net balance in favor of banks nearly doubled to US$1.854 billion from US$1.003 billion a year earlier.

Legal entities remained net buyers of foreign currency. Their sales to banks rose from US$3.184 billion to US$4.065 billion (+27.7%), while purchases grew even faster, from US$6.171 billion to US$7.451 billion (+20.7%). Consequently, the negative net balance increased from US$2.986 billion in January–February 2025 to US$3.386 billion in the same period of 2026.

These developments reflect a combination of higher market activity, a shift in trading mechanisms, and growing participation by both individuals and corporate clients in the foreign exchange market.