Uzbek Soum Halts Rally, Market Stabilizing

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 16 October 2025, the Uzbek soum has lost its upward momentum, with the US dollar strengthening to 12,200 soums.

Over the past week, the soum weakened by 1%. A week earlier, its growth had already slowed to just 0.08%. Prior to this, the national currency had been steadily appreciating, with weekly gains of 1%, 0.40%, and 0.86%, respectively.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised Uzbekistan’s economic growth forecast upward, projecting 6.8% for 2025 and 6% for 2026. This adjustment reflects positive macroeconomic trends and a robust recovery in domestic demand.

At the same time, the IMF raised its inflation expectations: 9.1% for 2025, up from the previous 8.4%. This exceeds the Central Bank’s forecast of 8.7%, indicating ongoing price pressures.

The outlook for the external balance has improved as well, with the current account deficit expected to narrow to 2.4% of GDP, supported by a gold market rally that has pushed prices to around $4,230 per ounce.

For the soum, this is a stabilizing factor — export revenues are growing faster than import pressures.

By the end of October, the USD/UZS exchange rate is expected to trade within the range of 12,050–12,500 soums, according to Alpari analyst Anna Bodrova.