The Energy Paradox of Uzbekistan

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — How rising energy consumption — from greenhouses to numerous construction projects — leads to air pollution and increased CO₂ and methane emissions

Economic Growth Fueled by the Energy of a Bygone Era

Uzbekistan today loudly declares rapid industrialization and economic growth. But behind these figures lies a troubling reality: energy consumption is growing at an outpacing rate, and much of this growth comes from an outdated fuel base. Construction booms, heating greenhouses with coal, and rising household demand lead to increased CO₂ and methane emissions, worsening air quality, and undermining the country’s climate goals. According to the World Bank, Uzbekistan remains one of the most energy-intensive economies in Eurasia — the country consumes 2.5 times more energy per unit of GDP than the world average. This energy intensity is not just a statistic, but an indicator reflecting additional emissions, infrastructure problems, and rising healthcare costs.

Air That’s Hard to Breathe

3,000 premature deaths per year

Tashkent is among the cities with the highest air pollution levels in Central Asia. According to a World Bank report, mortality in the capital caused by exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) reaches 3,042 premature deaths per year; the economic cost of health impacts is estimated at USD 488.4 million, equivalent to 0.7% of the country’s GDP. These figures are not abstract: behind them are real illnesses, overburdened hospitals, and families losing loved ones.

The main sources of pollution in Tashkent are distributed as follows: heating sector — 29%, transport — 16%, industry — 13%, windblown dust — 36%. In winter, heating of homes and greenhouses dominates; in summer, the contribution of construction dust and cross-border pollutants carried by wind increases. Evening and morning peaks of PM2.5 concentration (8:00–10:00 and after 20:00) coincide with periods when residents heat stoves, confirming a direct link between heating and worsening air quality.

Coal and Fuel Oil Heating: The Hidden Cost of Greenhouses

Greenhouse farming, which ensures the country’s food security, has become a significant source of emissions. According to the Ecoparty of Uzbekistan, many greenhouses around Tashkent use coal and fuel oil, emitting soot, sulfur, and methane. This not only contradicts the country’s climate commitments but also exacerbates public health problems.

“Today, Tashkent is surrounded by a belt of greenhouses heated with coal. In winter, the smoke forms a wall. We are essentially breathing combustion products that could have been avoided if there were incentives to switch to gas or electricity,” says ecologist Pavel Volkov, director of the eco-NGO Indigo. His words serve as an indictment of systemic failures: there is no fuel replacement or modernization incentive, and people’s health pays the price.

When Industry Knows No Limits

Growth in industrial production in cement, metallurgy, and construction sectors directly increases CO₂ emissions. According to the Ministry of Ecology, from 2019 to 2023 coal use rose from 3.9 to 6.7 million tons, and fuel oil remains a supplementary fuel for thermal power plants.

In December 2023, only six Tashkent heat plants used 3,000 tons of fuel oil — a fact closely linked to increased methane and carbon emissions. This trend shows that without changes in fuel policy, the industrial sector will continue to push the country toward carbon-intensive development.

The Construction Boom as an Energy Crisis Factor

Tashkent is experiencing an unprecedented construction boom. New residential complexes and infrastructure projects change the cityscape but also impose critical loads on power grids. Transformer substations, designed in a different era, are not built for modern demands; mass construction increases electricity shortages, residents complain of outages and voltage surges, and equipment fails. The public calls for a temporary moratorium on new construction until the power grid is modernized: “Developers connect new buildings to old equipment, while residents sit without light. Construction sites have floodlights burning, while homes are plunged into darkness,” says a resident of the Mirabad district.

Simultaneously, dust pollution increases: inspections have shown that developers often violate environmental regulations. In October 2024, inspectors recorded dust pollution, but the developer only received fines ranging from 1.2 to 2.8 million soms — “practically a token reprimand.” This illustrates the lack of real accountability and weak enforcement mechanisms.

Ecology on Paper: How Authorities Try to ‘Save the Air’

On October 26, 2025, the Ministry of Ecology presented a draft resolution “On Additional Measures to Prevent Air Pollution and Mitigate Climate Change Consequences in Tashkent City and Tashkent Region.” The document provides for the installation of dust-gas purification equipment at industrial facilities and greenhouses, replacement of old boilers, and a transition to alternative fuels; the state promises financial support and modernization grants. Experts, however, view these initiatives cautiously: “Filters are not a panacea. Control and real responsibility are needed. Otherwise, we will continue to breathe coal dust,” warns Pavel Volkov. Tashkent residents remain skeptical: similar promises have already been made, yet the situation remains critical.

Greening Through Deforestation

On the night of October 24–25, 2025, 174 trees and shrubs were cut down in the Yakkasaray district, despite the presidential moratorium. Minister of Ecology Advisor Rasul Kusherbaev stated that the damage to nature amounted to 1.46 billion soms, and attempts by inspectors to record the violation were blocked. Two days later, the khokimiyat explained the actions as “greening” and promised to plant 83 new saplings and 62,000 decorative shrubs, while acknowledging “allowed negligence.” On the same day, the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Tashkent reached 153 (PM2.5 — 58 µg/m³), considered “harmful to health.”

The case of juniper tree removal on Babur Street became emblematic: public pressure forced authorities to admit “negligence,” but the incident revealed systemic ecological management problems. Kusherbaev points out the absurdity of subordinating environmental inspections to local administrations and attempts to obstruct inspectors: khokimiyat representatives allegedly hindered ecologists’ work, confiscated an inspector’s phone, and deleted photos. Similar cases occurred earlier — in Kuvasay, 270 perennial trees were illegally transplanted without penalties.

Kusherbaev goes further, making serious claims about concealing environmental issues from higher authorities: “Air in Uzbekistan is deteriorating, ecology is worsening, trees are being cut down. When people look for those responsible, they say the Ministry of Ecology does nothing. But this is also hidden from the president.” He also mentioned colleague persecution: “He was forcibly put in a car and held, demanding that environmental inspections stop,” adding, “If in a few days I disappear or can no longer speak — know why.”

Residents of Babur Street describe how trees planted in 2009 and provided with drip irrigation protected from noise and dust, while the nighttime felling was perceived as an act of hostility toward public space. “They cut at night secretly. They could have at least transplanted them. These trees released essential oils and protected us from carbon monoxide,” says pensioner Svetlana Apina. For many, this became a symbol of lost trust and impunity: “If the president signed a moratorium and mayors violate it — who really holds power in the country?” ask the citizens.

Late in the evening of October 26, the khokimiyat acknowledged negligence, explaining that “during certain works related to previously existing plants, requirements were violated,” and reported plans to plant 83 pyramidal guzhum (elixa) saplings and over 62,000 decorative shrubs; some of the 145 junipers were allegedly “affected by disease.” Observers consider these explanations insufficient: “This is not negligence, it is a crime,” says resident Eugenie Muminova; for many, this episode further exposes the contradictions between “green reforms” rhetoric and actual practices.

Statistics and Nature of Pollution

According to the World Bank, Tashkent’s annual average PM2.5 level exceeds the WHO recommended level (5 µg/m³) by more than six times. Annual average PM2.5 concentrations below the first WHO interim target (35 µg/m³) are observed in only 39% of city cells, inhabited by only 17% of the population — therefore, 83% of Tashkent residents live in the most polluted areas. The contribution of urban dust and road dust resuspension reaches 13–14% in summer, and a significant portion of summer pollution comes from transboundary dust (36% of all PM2.5 pollution).

High emission levels outside urban areas are explained by the lack of centralized heating: households must use individual heating sources, including solid fuel. The Ministry of Ecology confirms that greenhouses around urban areas also use coal for heating, increasing annual anthropogenic emissions.

The economic costs of air pollution, estimated based on the value of an average life and accounting for morbidity, amount to approximately $488.4 million per year, or around 0.7% of Uzbekistan's GDP. These calculations link direct health losses to macroeconomic consequences, making it clear that environmental problems are turning into economic ones.

Premature Mortality

Mortality in Tashkent associated with the population-weighted annual average PM2.5 concentration of 38.8 µg/m³ reaches 3,042 premature deaths per year.

The most frequent causes are stroke — 33%, ischemic heart disease — 28%, lower respiratory infections — 23%. These data, based on local observations and Global Burden of Disease (GBD) findings, show that air impacts demography and healthcare significantly and multifacetedly.

Smog over Uzbekistan

On October 27, 2025, UzHydromet reported strong dust storms and increased winds in several regions. In Karakalpakstan and Navoi region, wind speeds could reach 13–18 m/s; the population was advised to limit outdoor activities and stay home if possible. These natural phenomena exacerbate the already severe air quality situation: smog lingers over the city and, according to meteorologists, could persist until October 30.

Expert View: Climatologist on Air Pollution Causes and Climate Risks

Climatologist and researcher Erkin Abdulakhatov warns: “The air pollution situation poses a threat to millions of people in Uzbekistan. And this threat will grow exponentially.” According to him, December 2023 became a turning point: on December 14, PM2.5 concentration reached 108.8 µg/m³, 22 times above the WHO annual recommendation (5 µg/m³). On December 22, the U.S. Embassy sensor in Yunusabad district recorded 335 µg/m³ — 67 times higher than the standard.

Abdulakhatov identifies several key causes of severe smog episodes: widespread use of low-quality AI-80 gasoline due to gas station closures, burning fuel oil and coal for heating, lack of PM2.5 standards (unlike PM10), and the absence of national sanitary regulations based on local studies. “When there is no wind, fuel oil used in boiler plants solidifies in the air as harmful smog… That day we entered the dark purple pollution zone. It is such air pollution that a gas mask, not just a mask, is needed,” he says.

The city’s geography worsens the problem: wind patterns and circulation features cause emission accumulation. Abdulakhatov gives wind speed calculations: from mountains, wind is about 4 m/s, in Chirchik — 3 m/s, in Kibray district — 2.5 m/s, and southwestern Tashkent districts (Sergeli, Chilanzar, Uchtepa) often experience calm. Concentration of harmful substances from Angren, Almalyk, and Chirchik industrial enterprises settles in the urban agglomeration, intensifying smog.

He also emphasizes the climate component: desertification and dust storms linked to land degradation in the Aral region and Mirzachul increase dust levels. Dust from the west sometimes carries pesticide residues used in cotton cultivation, complicating the ecological picture. Abdulakhatov welcomes saksaul planting on the Aral Sea floor, noting that green cover already has effects — increases humidity and precipitation frequency, helping curb dust.

Impact on Health and Quality of Life

The climatologist emphasizes: poor air quality is especially felt by children. He gives a personal example: his elder son, born in Namangan, is healthy; the younger, born in Tashkent a month before a dust storm, experienced it and is now prone to allergic diseases. Abdulakhatov notes that in central Tashkent, oxygen content is around 20% (1% below the global average of 21%), while in some areas it reaches 20.3% — levels affecting sleep, well-being, and concentration.

Medical practice confirms alarming trends. ENT doctor Aziz Uzakov, member of the American Academy of Otolaryngology–Head and Neck Surgery, notes a nearly twofold increase in chronic inflammation of nasal passages and airways in recent years. “We see growth in chronic sinusitis, asthma, and allergic rhinitis. Patients’ quality of life decreases… PM2.5 particles penetrate deep into the lungs and cause systemic diseases,” he says, adding that economic damage from respiratory illnesses far exceeds the cost of filter installation and boiler modernization.

The Need for Systemic Measures

Experts and international organizations propose concrete steps to reduce CO₂ emissions and PM2.5 concentration without conflicting with the country’s economic interests. Climatologist Erkin Abdulakhatov insists on developing national air quality standards: while PM10 norms exist, PM2.5 standards do not. “We use global standards, but we need our own based on local research. The mineral composition of dust in Uzbekistan is different — hence its impact is different,” he notes. Establishing national limits and quality indices, according to the World Bank, is key to systematic pollution control.

Control over coal and fuel oil use in energy and greenhouses remains critical. Abdulakhatov and UzHydromet representatives stress that mass burning of fuel oil and coal during gas shortages is one of the main causes of winter smog. “If there is no gas — at least install filters, regardless of cost, before switching to coal,” says the climatologist. The World Bank offers subsidies for emission filtration and incentives to transition to renewable energy in greenhouse and household sectors.

Restoring green zones and protecting existing vegetation are also priorities. Incidents of deforestation demonstrate the vulnerability of urban ecosystems: Ministry of Ecology Advisor Rasul Kusherbaev calls for making green cover preservation a national priority. Ecologist Pavel Volkov urges not to destroy trees through improper pruning and to preserve the old green stock. Local activists propose holding officials personally accountable for illegal tree cutting, temporarily halting new construction until green zones are inventoried, and requiring building owners to maintain green areas.

Combating dust storms and desertification is another direction: UzHydromet links stronger storms in Karakalpakstan and Navoi with vegetation degradation. Abdulakhatov suggests expanding the saksaul and desert plant program on the Aral Sea floor and in Mirzachul; he observes that green cover retains dust and lowers temperature, potentially increasing precipitation in the long term.

Economic incentives and energy-efficient technologies remain practical mitigation tools. According to the World Bank, economic losses from air pollution in Tashkent reach 0.7% of GDP, and costs from health impacts and premature mortality are USD 488.4 million per year. Experts propose carbon pricing and tax incentives for enterprises implementing low-carbon technologies; encouraging TPP and CHP modernization using gas and hybrid systems; developing solar and wind capacities, especially in southern regions.

International cooperation is equally important: Tashkent’s pollution partly comes from cross-border emissions, and Abdulakhatov suggests joint programs with neighboring countries, including Kazakhstan, for afforestation and dust storm mitigation.

Finally, transparency and civic monitoring are key for accountability. The juniper cutting case showed that only public monitoring and reporting of emissions from enterprises and greenhouses can act as a deterrent against corruption and arbitrariness in the environmental sector.

Conclusion

Recent years’ experience shows that ecology in Uzbekistan has become not only an environmental but also a management issue. Air pollution in Tashkent, where PM2.5 concentration exceeds WHO norms more than six times, is not just a local megacity problem but reflects nationwide dependence on carbon-intensive sources and weak emission control. Estimated mortality linked to PM2.5 reaches 3,042 cases annually; economic losses — 0.7% of GDP, comparable to major public spending on healthcare and education.

International experience shows: transition to a “green” economy is possible, but only by integrating environmental standards into governance, energy, and urban planning. For Uzbekistan, this means a clear decarbonization strategy, gradual elimination of fuel oil and coal in communal and greenhouse sectors, and a sharp increase in renewable energy share. Implementing such measures is not only a response to climate risks but also a chance to create new “green” growth, combining ecology, energy, and public health interests.

Dust storms, dense smog over Tashkent, and alarming air quality indicators are no longer isolated events but signals of deep systemic problems. Transparency and decisive action will determine whether Uzbekistan’s growth remains compatible with living in a clean environment.

Kamila Fayzieva

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of UzDaily.