Strategic Deadlock in the Zangezur Corridor Debates: Regional Integration or Geopolitical Rivalry?

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — On August 8, 2025, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, and the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, met under the auspices of U.S. President Donald Trump and signed a joint declaration.

Through this declaration, the Zangezur Corridor was transferred to the United States for operation for 99 years under the title “Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route Connectivity Project.” Thus, a new and historic threshold was crossed toward the opening of the corridor.

During his address at the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made remarks regarding the project titled “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.” He stated: “Regional connectivity forms the foundation of our vision for lasting peace. One of the most significant outcomes of the Washington Summit is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity project, which will ensure unhindered transit through the Zangezur Corridor and strengthen regional connections.”

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in his own speech during the 80th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, emphasized that the Washington Declaration, adopted at the White House on August 8, 2025, and witnessed by U.S. President Donald Trump, marked a culmination point in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

In his address, Prime Minister Pashinyan made the following points regarding this process:

He objected to the term “Zangezur Corridor,” interpreting it as a territorial claim and a narrative of conflict directed against Armenia. Pashinyan underlined that although President Aliyev used the phrase “Zangezur Corridor” after the adoption of the Washington Declaration, the term was not included in any official documents and had never been used in Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations.

Pashinyan declared that Armenia, together with the United States and mutually designated third parties, would implement the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” infrastructure project within Armenian territory. He noted that the project would consist of various infrastructure components spanning dozens of kilometers, and would possess both regional and global significance. Pashinyan described the project as a true reflection of Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative.

Consequently, in his speech, Pashinyan explicitly rejected the expression “Zangezur Corridor.”

Furthermore, Pashinyan’s emphasis on the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative can be interpreted as an attempt to establish a balancing discourse in Armenia’s relations with both the United States and Iran. Indeed, during his meeting in August 2025 with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who visited Armenia, Pashinyan highlighted issues of railway, road, and logistics cooperation within the framework of the said project. He particularly drew attention to the new cooperation opportunity that would enable Iran’s access to the Black Sea through Armenia via the Nakhchivan–Julfa railway line. Pashinyan emphasized that the Trump Corridor infrastructure network would operate entirely under Armenia’s sovereign and security control.

He also cited as examples of strategically important projects the 32-kilometer Kajaran–Agarak highway and the second border bridge project. In the energy sector, he underlined the importance of completing the Armenia–Iran power transmission line.

Pashinyan reiterated his emphasis on the “Crossroads of Peace” initiative during his working visit to China, stating that the initiative complements the U.S. “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” investment program. He further noted that the terminology employed by the Azerbaijani President did not correspond to the understanding reached in Washington, and reaffirmed that Armenia and the United States would jointly implement a communication and infrastructure investment program under the title “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity.”

According to the official website of the Office of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed his support for the Armenian government’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative and for the opening of regional communication lines.

An Assessment of the Geopolitical and Diplomatic Foundations of Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” Approach

Armenia’s adoption of the terminology “Crossroads of Peace” as an alternative to the expression “Zangezur Corridor” represents not merely a conceptual preference, but rather a strategic discourse designed to emphasize sovereignty and regional positioning.

The government in Yerevan argues that the concept of a “corridor” could imply granting Azerbaijan a special or direct right of passage through Armenian territory, which, in the context of international law, may carry sovereignty-related risks. According to the Armenian interpretation, Azerbaijan’s insistence on using the term “corridor” is perceived as a geopolitical instrument of pressure with the potential to undermine Armenia’s sovereignty. In contrast, the expression “Crossroads of Peace” is presented as a multilateral and inclusive model of connectivity.

Within this framework, Armenia further argues that the notion of a “corridor” in some cases implies an extraterritorial status — that is, an area lying outside the jurisdiction of the host state. Although the Armenian side claims that the term “corridor” may connote a loss of sovereignty, it should be noted that in international legal practice, the term generally refers only to a right of transit rather than to extraterritorial control.

At the regional level, Armenia regards the “Zangezur Corridor” proposal as a unilateral, Azerbaijan-centered transport route, arguing that such a framework would reduce Armenia to a passive transit country. Conversely, through the “Crossroads of Peace” discourse, Armenia seeks to reposition itself as a multidimensional hub at the intersection of Turkey, Iran, Georgia, and Azerbaijan.

This model, in Yerevan’s view, not only facilitates transit connectivity but also promises to diversify Armenia’s economic gains through customs revenues, logistics investments, and energy routes.

This terminological and strategic choice simultaneously serves as a diplomatic response to Armenia’s regional threats and expectations. Within this context, Yerevan aims to soften relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan, while avoiding direct confrontation with Iran, another key regional actor. In particular, Iran’s perception of the “Zangezur Corridor” as a bypass route that could diminish its regional influence makes Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” approach more acceptable to Tehran, thereby helping Armenia preserve strategic balance in its foreign policy.

From a domestic political perspective, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan employs the concept of the “Crossroads of Peace” as a political communication tool that reinforces narratives of sovereignty, independence, and national decision-making capacity. Against opposition accusations that his government is “making concessions to Azerbaijan,” the Pashinyan administration seeks to convey the message that “Armenia is not surrendering, but cooperating.” In this respect, the concept functions as a mechanism for maintaining national resilience in the domestic sphere while projecting an image of measured flexibility in foreign policy.

In conclusion, Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” project serves both as a domestic political message and as an effort to conduct a balanced diplomacy between the United States–European Union–Iran axes. Moreover, Pashinyan’s intention to postpone the ratification of the peace agreement initialed during the Washington meetings until after the 2026 parliamentary elections can be interpreted as a move to avoid domestic backlash.

The 2026 Armenian elections are thus likely to determine the fate of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” agreement, since a pro-Russian electoral outcome could potentially suspend or nullify the accord entirely.

New Axes of Geo-Economic Competition in the South Caucasus: The Trump, Zangezur, and Aras Corridors

In recent years, the South Caucasus has increasingly become the focal point of new geopolitical and geo-economic configurations centered on energy, trade, and transportation. Within this framework, three major transport routes — the Trump Corridor (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), the Zangezur Corridor, and the Aras Corridor — have emerged not only as critical components in reshaping regional connectivity but also as key arenas of regional competition.

These contested logistical routes possess a dual potential: on the one hand, they may foster new zones of tension and conflict; on the other, they could transform the South Caucasus into one of the new centers of international trade.

1. The Trump Corridor

The Trump Corridor is a multi-layered project based on international cooperation, aiming to integrate transport and energy infrastructure between mainland Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through Armenian territory. The primary objective of the corridor is to revitalize regional trade under U.S. mediation, linking routes extending from China to Europe along the New Silk Road to Western markets via Turkey and Azerbaijan.

In this context, the Trump Corridor is not merely a transport route; it also reflects Washington’s aspiration to expand its geo-economic influence along the Middle Corridor, to shape regional economic orientations, and to secure a pivotal position in the Turkey–Azerbaijan–Europe linkage, as well as in the broader Turkic World connectivity, while counterbalancing Iran’s strategic posture in the region.

2. The Zangezur Corridor

The Zangezur Corridor is a strategic project designed to establish a direct land and railway connection between Azerbaijan and Turkey. This route connects Azerbaijan to Turkey via Nakhchivan through Armenian territory, thereby creating an uninterrupted transport line extending from the Caspian Sea to the Mediterranean.

Beyond promoting economic and logistical cooperation among the three states, the project embodies an infrastructural vision that supports the geopolitical integration of the Turkic World within the framework of the Organization of Turkic States (OTS).

In this regard, the Zangezur Corridor stands out as one of the most concrete steps toward establishing a strategic axis between Central Asia and Anatolia. It is also described as a project capable of fostering peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and of developing Turkey–Azerbaijan–Armenia relations in the absence of any external balancing power.

The project could make a significant contribution to regional peace, strengthen Armenia’s strategic position, and revitalize a war-fatigued region, ensuring that economic benefits reach local populations through the cooperation of the participating states. By removing the atmosphere of hostility, it may advance peace and security within the framework of neighborly interstate law.

Furthermore, the project offers Armenia a pathway to autonomy free from the competing influences of the United States, Iran, and Russia, positioning it as a sovereign actor capable of making independent decisions and contributing to the elimination of the conflict-oriented political culture that has long characterized the region.

3. The Aras Corridor: Iran’s Geo-Economic Countermove

The Aras Corridor has emerged as an alternative route envisaging Azerbaijan’s access to Nakhchivan via Iranian territory. This line is presented by Iran as a geo-strategic alternative that connects Azerbaijan and Turkey while bypassing Armenia.

Some of the principal objectives of this project can be summarized as follows: it represents Iran’s aspiration to maintain a key role in linking Turkey with the Turkic World, and in facilitating Azerbaijan’s connections with Nakhchivan and the European Union.

From Tehran’s perspective, the Aras Corridor also offers an opportunity to integrate with the Middle Corridor, to elevate its position as a key transit country along the New Silk Road, and to capture a share of the region’s economic dynamism.

At the same time, the Iranian leadership views the project as an attempt to counterbalance U.S. influence in the South Caucasus and to preserve Iran’s central role in regional energy, trade, and logistics networks, much as it sought to do prior to the Second Karabakh War.

Conclusion

The Trump, Zangezur, and Aras corridors represent not only a redefinition of the transportation and trade map of the South Caucasus, but also a reshaping of regional balances of power and the strategic orientations of global actors. These projects serve as indicators of a multilayered order in which geo-economic cooperation and geopolitical competition are intertwined in the region’s future.

At present, it cannot be said that a final consensus has been achieved on the corridors in the South Caucasus. Although a certain “atmosphere of peace” seems to have emerged via the Trump Corridor, the Yerevan government faces difficulty in taking concrete steps due to the intersecting strategic interests of the United States, Iran, and Russia in the region. In addition, the domestic political concerns surrounding Armenia’s 2026 parliamentary elections further complicate Yerevan’s decision-making processes.

In particular, the lease of the infrastructure operation and environmental regulation of the Zangezur Corridor for 99 years to a U.S.-based private consortium—traversing Armenia’s Syunik region—(even if the U.S. appears not to directly assume security responsibilities) clearly reveals a long-term intent of the United States to establish presence in the region. This move has provoked strong reactions from Russia and Iran. The Tehran administration views this project as a “land blockade” strategy designed to isolate Iran from the South Caucasus; Iranian analysts interpret the U.S. initiative as part of a broader economic and political pressure scheme against Iran. During his visit to Yerevan, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian did not seem satisfied by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s assurance that the corridor would be operated in full compliance with Armenian law.

In summary, the fundamental obstacle preventing all initiatives from reaching the final signature stage is Yerevan’s inability to act with sufficient autonomy and sovereignty throughout the process—from preliminary understandings with Baku to a definitive peace agreement. This dynamic is already evident in the implementation of the 2020 Joint Statement between the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, and the President of the Russian Federation. The Joint Statement’s Article 9 states: “The Republic of Armenia shall guarantee the free passage of citizens, vehicles and goods between the western regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic. The transportation control shall be carried out by the Russian Federal Security Service Border Unit. Upon agreement of the parties, new transport links will be constructed connecting the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan.”

This provision clearly establishes a legal basis for the Zangezur Corridor, granting Azerbaijan transit rights without undermining Armenia’s sovereignty. What is at issue here is not territorial transfer, but the liberalization of international transport. The legal foundation for this concept lies in instruments such as the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), GATT Article V (Freedom of Transit), and the 1965 New York Convention on Transit Trade of Land-locked States (which enshrines the principle of freedom of transit).

Nevertheless, Armenia continues to block every agreement on the path to a solution by invoking arguments around sovereignty. Therefore, for now, all corridor or junction projects—particularly the definitive peace agreement—remain at the rhetorical level. However, Armenia’s recently demonstrated willingness to improve relations with Turkey and Azerbaijan does offer a modest lift to hope. For example, the photograph of the First Ladies of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey together at the 25th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) held in China strengthens that ray of hope.

Ahmet Sağlam / www.saglamahmet.com / 09.10.2025 / Ankara

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