S&P Upgrades Ratings of NGMK, AGMK, and Uzbekneftegaz to BB

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — S&P Global Ratings has upgraded the ratings of Uzbekistan’s largest state-owned companies: NGMK now holds a “BB” rating with a “stable” outlook (previously “BB-” with a “positive” outlook), JSC Uzbekneftegaz has been raised to “BB-” with a “stable” outlook (previously “B+” with a “positive” outlook), and JSC AGMK has also improved its rating to “BB-” with a “stable” outlook.

At the same time, the agency upgraded the ratings of the senior unsecured bond issuances of NGMK and Uzbekneftegaz to “BB” and “BB-,” respectively.

The rating upgrades were made possible against the backdrop of an improved sovereign rating for Uzbekistan and a revision of the likelihood of state support for the largest state-owned enterprises from “strong” to “very strong.”

According to the agency, this reflects the government’s efforts to strengthen control and oversight over key companies that contribute a significant portion of the national budget through taxes and dividends. Previously, in 2023, the agency had downgraded the likelihood of state support due to insufficient control over financial performance and debt servicing.

For NGMK, the rating upgrade is attributed both to the improved sovereign rating and to the maintenance of a strong Stand-Alone Credit Profile (SACP) at “bb+.” The stable outlook reflects the expectation that the company will maintain conservative financial metrics, including a debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 1x, and continue to pay substantial dividends to the state. The agency notes, however, that a sharp increase in debt, large shareholder payouts, or operational disruptions could pressure the rating and lower the SACP.

For AGMK, the rating upgrade is linked to the revised likelihood of state support to “high” and the plans to launch the country’s largest investment project—a copper-gold mine with a processing plant valued at nearly US$5 billion. This project will more than double ore processing volumes, and state oversight of the investment confirms the company’s close ties to the government.

The agency emphasizes that AGMK’s standalone financial metrics remain weaker than those of competitors, despite high gold and copper prices, with FFO to debt projected at 20–30% in the coming years. An upgrade to “BB” would require a two-step improvement in the SACP, which is unlikely in the short term.

As for Uzbekneftegaz, its rating has been raised to “BB-” with a “stable” outlook, reflecting the improved sovereign rating and the revised probability of very high state support. The company’s SACP was also increased from “b” to “b+” due to improved corporate governance.

The stable outlook reflects expectations of gradual improvement in operational and financial performance, with EBITDA around 20 trillion soums and FFO to debt at approximately 20%. The agency notes that a downgrade could occur if operational performance or liquidity deteriorates sharply, while an upgrade to “BB” would require significant improvements in financing structure, an FFO-to-debt ratio above 45%, and high transparency in tariffs, production, and capital expenditures.

Thus, the improvement in ratings of Uzbekistan’s largest state-owned companies demonstrates the growing role of the government in controlling strategic enterprises and strengthening their financial stability, which also mirrors the positive trend in the country’s sovereign rating.