S&P Revises Navoiyuran Outlook to “Positive” on Rising Production

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — S&P Global Ratings has affirmed the long-term credit rating of Uzbekistan’s uranium producer Navoiyuran at “BB-” while revising the outlook to “positive.”

The improved outlook reflects the company’s strong operating performance and its strategic partnerships. In 2024, Navoiyuran produced 5,200 tonnes of uranium, significantly exceeding its planned targets, with 99% of revenue secured under existing contracts. The company also obtained nine new licenses and doubled its capital investments, creating potential for expanded sales and additional contracting.

S&P expects the company’s EBITDA to rise sharply in 2025 to 10–11 trillion soums, driven by increased production volumes and higher spot uranium prices. Rising costs for materials, logistics, and social expenditures are expected to be partially offset by a favorable exchange rate and lower fixed costs.

The agency highlights Navoiyuran’s solid credit profile: its debt-to-EBITDA ratio remains below 1x, and the company has maintained a conservative leverage policy since its establishment in 2022. The positive outlook indicates the possibility of a rating upgrade within the next 12 months if stable production, profitability, and an FFO-to-debt ratio above 60% are sustained.

The outlook may be revised back to stable in the event of operational disruptions or excessive shareholder distributions, while an upgrade is possible if the company continues to demonstrate steady growth and moderate leverage.