Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Scientists from the Singapore University of Technology and Design have conducted a study on the end of the outbreak of coronavirus in countries around the world, including Uzbekistan, Dunyo news agency reported.

Explaining the motives of their research, scientists write that in the context of the outbreak of the pandemic and the ensuing global crisis, it is important for people to plan their future lives. Forecasting is a difficult task, taking into account the uncertainty of the future arising from the difficult life changes that COVID-19 has influenced.

“The existing knowledge of historical pandemic processes in humanity and the constantly accumulating data on the current outbreak allow us to project a model [calculus] for predicting the end dates of a pandemic,” the researchers explain.

Scientists at Singapore University of Technology and Design claim that the "behavior" of COVID-19 is not random, that is, chaotic. Like other pandemics (referring to coronaviruses), the life cycle of COVID-19 begins from an outbreak to an acceleration phase, an inflection point, a slowdown phase and a possible stop or end.

The study is presented in the SIR model, a mathematical model that calculates the ratio of susceptible, infected, and recovered. The life cycle of a pandemic is displayed as an S-shape curve, when the graph shows the cumulative number of infections over time, or as a bell-shaped curve based on daily counts.

The cause of this or that cycle is affected by the result of adaptation and the necessary measures of struggle on the part of governments (the program of measures of countries), people, individuals (social distance), as well as the new way of life that has developed after removal of restrictions.

Singapore researchers note that a similar model was previously used in calculating population growth, the spread of new technologies and infectious diseases. Scientists used Our World in Data and Milan Batista to project curves.

Scientists recall that indicating the end date is arbitrary, indicating the need for proper interpretation in order to avoid the use of data for personal interests. In this regard, the forecast for each country should be considered in the context of the behavior of other countries and the state program to combat coronavirus.

In addition, excessive optimism, according to researchers, based on predicted end dates, is dangerous because it can weaken organization and control, thereby causing a second outbreak.

Despite the data obtained, scientists from Singapore do not exclude inaccurate predictions, since they cannot show the completeness and complexity of the whole situation around COVID-19.

Thus, these studies are presented at three alternative end dates:

- date of achievement of the last case of infection;

- date of achievement of 99% of all expected cases;

- date of achievement 97% of the total number of expected cases.

Tentative country pandemic exit dates

The top ten countries included China, South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Iceland, Austria, Luxembourg, Niger, Jordan, Djibouti.

Uzbekistan is on 16th place. According to scientists, the coronavirus in Uzbekistan may end on May 1 (97% probability), May 6 (99% probability) and May 20 (100% probability).