Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Credit rating agency Moody’s Ratings has revised Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating outlook from “Stable” to “Positive”, while affirming its long-term issuer ratings in both foreign and local currency at Ba3.

The agency also confirmed the Ba3 rating on the country’s unsecured debt obligations, including the (P)Ba3 rating for the medium-term note (MTN) program.

According to Moody’s, the outlook revision reflects the view that continued reforms to strengthen governance and institutional frameworks—if implemented effectively—could over time improve the effectiveness of economic policymaking and institutional quality. The government’s privatization program, if successfully carried out, could also help unlock higher potential growth. Combined with fiscal discipline, these reforms may enhance economic resilience and allow Uzbekistan to fully realize its development potential over the medium term.

The affirmation of the Ba3 rating is underpinned by Uzbekistan’s relatively diversified economy, solid growth trajectory, and moderate public debt levels, mostly on concessional terms. However, constraints remain, including low per capita income, weak competitiveness, institutional challenges (though improving), and moderate political risks.

Uzbekistan’s economic growth accelerated to 6.5% in 2024, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment. Moody’s expects continued robust growth over the medium term, supported by major infrastructure investments—notably in the energy and transport sectors—under the “Uzbekistan – 2030” Strategy, and a rising inflow of foreign direct investment.

While a decline in remittances from Russia is expected, increased transfers from Europe and Asia are likely to offset part of that loss. Moody’s forecasts real GDP growth of 5.8% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026.