Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Central Asia needs to form a unified policy on climate change mitigation and adaptation. This opinion was expressed by the First Deputy Director of the Institute for Strategic and Interregional Studies under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Akramjon Nematov at the online conference "The impact of global warming on Central Asia: assessments and approaches of the countries of the region, as well as prospects for regional cooperation ”, held on 17 November.

The event, organized jointly with the regional office of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (Germany) in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was attended by leading experts from the institutes for strategic studies of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, representative offices of regional projects of the EU, USAID, GIZ, as well as specialists from the State Committee for Ecology, Goskomles , Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry of Agriculture, Uzgidromet, Ministry of Emergency Situations, CEIR.

During the webinar, the participants exchanged views on a wide range of issues of the impact of climate change on the sustainable development of Central Asia, expanding regional cooperation in the field of mitigation and adaptation.

Opening the forum, Akramjon Nematov noted that at present the Central Asian region is increasingly experiencing the consequences of global climate change.

According to the UN, warming in Central Asia is happening faster than in other parts of the world. If since 1900 the average world temperature has increased by 1.1°C, then in our region the average annual temperature has added 1.6°C, that is, on average it has increased from 13.2°C to 14.8°C. At the same time, according to forecasts, by 2050 the air temperature may increase by another 1.5°-3°C.

According to the representative of the ISMI, such a development of climate processes of a transboundary nature will aggravate the already difficult situation in the field of environmental, water, food, energy and economic security.

First, water scarcity is increasing. Over the past 50-60 years, the area of glaciers in Central Asia has decreased by about 30%. Until 2050, a decrease in water resources in the basins of the Syr Darya rivers is expected - up to 5%, Amudarya - up to 15%.

This may exacerbate water use problems in the region.

It is estimated that by 2040, water availability per person in the region may decrease by 25%. Already today in Uzbekistan, the total water deficit exceeds more than 3 billion cubic meters. m. At the same time, this figure by 2050 may increase five times to 15 billion cubic meters. m.

Secondly, the rate of land degradation is accelerating, which affects biodiversity and food security. According to the UN, about 37% of the land in Central Asia is currently degraded. Over the past 50 years, another 15-20% of the land in Central Asian countries has undergone the process of desertification. With further deterioration of the state of land, a reduction in crop yields by 20-40% is expected, which, in the context of population growth, can cause a food crisis.

Thirdly, natural disasters have become more frequent in Central Asia - droughts, landslides, floods, sandstorms. According to the World Bank, over the past 30 years, the region has been exposed 140 times to the dangerous effects of various events that have affected more than 10 million people. Natural disasters annually damage the Central Asian economy by 10 billion dollars and limit its growth by 1–2%.

The ISMI expert stressed that in general, all of the above negative trends will limit the socio-economic development of the region and require closer coordination and joint cooperation of all Central Asian countries. Otherwise, according to the forecasts of the World Bank, by 2050. the negative effects of climate change could lead to an 11% reduction in regional GDP, which is more than US$30 billion today.

Akramjon Nematov also noted that today all Central Asian countries are taking measures to adapt and mitigate the consequences of climate change. In particular, in recent years, a fundamental transformation of environmental policy has been carried out in Uzbekistan, taking into account new realities. Concepts were adopted for environmental protection until 2030, for the development of water management for 2020-2030, strategies for the transition to a "green" economy for the period 2019-2030, for the management of solid household waste for the period 2019-2028, conservation of biological diversity in Uzbekistan until 2028.

Work is underway to develop national strategies for the decarbonization of the economy until 2050, the development of renewable and hydrogen energy.

The First Deputy Director of ISMI stated that as part of the gradual transition to a "green" economy by 2030, a twofold increase in energy efficiency and a decrease in the carbon intensity of GDP are expected, by 2026 it is planned to increase the share of renewable energy in the total energy balance from 10% to 25%.

Water-saving technologies are being actively introduced, including drip irrigation, which by 2023 is scheduled to cover more than 25% of irrigated agricultural land.

Over the past 5 years, the areas of protected natural areas have been increased by 3 times. This is 6.3 million hectares, that is, 14% of the total area of the country. Since 2018, forests and forest plantations have been planted on an area of 1.7 million hectares. This is 3 times more than the commitments made to restore forest areas within the framework of the Bonn Challenge.

From 2021 a nationwide Yashil Makon program is being implemented, within which it is planned to increase green areas and parks in urban areas from 8% to 30% by 2026.

The ISMI expert emphasized that Uzbekistan is actively involved in global environmental policy. By joining to the UN Paris Climate Agreement in 2017, Uzbekistan increased its commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere by 2030 from 10% to 35%.

Within the framework of international organizations, in particular the UN, SCO, CIS, UTC, Uzbekistan takes initiatives aimed at increasing the effectiveness of cooperation in overcoming the negative effects of climate change and transitioning to a "green economy".

According to the First Deputy Director of ISMI, the adoption of the Green Agenda Regional Program for Central Asia at the Fourth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of the Central Asian States, held on July 21, 2022 in Kyrgyzstan, initiated by the President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev, was a great achievement.

The document provides for the expansion of mutually beneficial cooperation on the introduction of energy-efficient and resource-saving technologies, the decarbonization of the economy, the rational use of water resources, an increase in the share of renewable energy generation and other environmental measures.

Akramjon Nematov emphasized that the adoption of the joint program once again demonstrated that the countries of the region share a common concern about the current situation and express their readiness to actively cooperate in countering the threats and challenges of climate change.

According to the expert, today it is important to intensify cooperation to fill the practical content of the adopted program, consolidate common approaches and develop specific proposals for the prospects for further regional cooperation in the field of climate change.

At the end of his speech, Akramjon Nematov announced the priority areas of regional cooperation in this area. In particular, he noted the importance of developing an integrated regional monitoring system, forecasting changes in the natural environment, as well as early warning and joint response to extreme natural disasters.

In addition, according to the ISMI expert, it is necessary to establish intersectoral and interdisciplinary cooperation, to implement an integrated approach, taking into account the fact that the consequences of climate change have a multiplier effect and affect many sectors of the economy and spheres of public life.

The key direction is to build systemic cooperation in the field of training and advanced training of personnel, the comprehensive development of the scientific, technical and research potential of the region. Adaptation to natural changes is also becoming important, which requires coordinated participation in global environmental efforts, joint attraction of climate finance. The need to develop a Framework Regional Program for Adaptation to Changing Natural and Climate Conditions, which should become a common platform for the development of effective regional cooperation, was pointed out. At the same time, Akramjon Nematov emphasized the need to increase international cooperation in this direction.