IMF Upgrades Uzbekistan’s Economic Growth Forecast for 2025–2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Uzbekistan’s economic growth and inflation to accelerate in 2025–2026, according to the latest World Economic Outlook report.

According to the Fund’s estimates, Uzbekistan’s economic growth in 2025 will accelerate from 6.5% to 6.8%. The forecast for 2026 has also been revised upward, with growth expected to reach 6% compared to 5.8% in the previous outlook. The IMF notes that the revised figures reflect more positive macroeconomic trends in the country.

At the same time, the Fund’s experts have downgraded their inflation forecast. While in April inflation was expected to slow to 8.4% (compared to 9.6% in 2024), the new projection foresees an acceleration to 9.1%, exceeding the Central Bank’s September estimate of 8.7%. For 2026, the IMF forecasts inflation at 7.1%, up from the April estimate of 6.5%, which was close to the Central Bank’s 5% target.

The outlook for the current account balance has also improved. The deficit is now expected to narrow to 2.4% of GDP in 2025, compared to 5% in the April forecast, and to 4.6% of GDP in 2026 (4.8% previously). This revision is likely linked to rising global gold prices, which have exceeded US$4,000 per troy ounce.