Global Air Transport Market Sees Moderate Growth in Passenger and Cargo Traffic in Early 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data on the global air transport market for January 2026, reporting moderate growth in both passenger and cargo traffic.

Passenger traffic rose by 3.8% in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) compared to January 2025, with available seat kilometers (ASK) up 3.5%. The global load factor reached 82.0%, a record for January and 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous year. International passenger demand grew 5.9%, with capacity up 5.8% and a load factor of 82.5%. Domestic travel was largely stagnant, with a 0.1% increase in demand, a 0.4% decrease in capacity, and an 81.2% load factor.

The Lunar New Year, which fell in February 2026 instead of January 2025, influenced the comparison, creating a more moderate growth effect. IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that global capacity is expected to expand 5.2% by March 2026, the fastest increase since April 2024. Uncertainty remains due to recent geopolitical developments and fuel prices, with governments urged to ensure aviation safety.

Despite rising infrastructure fees and stricter regulations, real-term airfares continue to support long-term accessibility trends. However, the number of new airlines in 2025 was the lowest since 1999, signaling potential risks to competition and connectivity.

Regionally, international passenger growth varied: Asia-Pacific +4.4% (load factor 85.9%), Europe +6.3% (79.4%), North America +3.4% (82.3%), Middle East +7.2% (83.2%), Latin America +11.4% (86.5%), Africa +11.7% (77.4%). Domestic markets showed mixed results, with Brazil +10.9% (84.9%), India +3.4%, Japan +0.7%, while China −3.8%, Australia −1.6%, and the USA −0.7%. Overall domestic demand grew 0.1% with a load factor of 81.2%.

Cargo traffic started 2026 strongly, with global CTK demand up 5.6% and international demand +7.2%. Capacity increased 3.6% globally and 5.7% internationally. Africa (+18.2%), Middle East (+9.3%), and Asia-Pacific (+7.8%) led growth; North America (−0.5%) and Latin America (−2.0%) saw declines. Load factor rose 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%.

Key cargo routes saw growth, especially Africa–Asia (+41.6%), Europe–Asia (+15.2%), and intra-Asia (+14.3%), while only Asia–North America fell slightly (−0.6%).

Factors influencing January statistics included global merchandise trade growth (+4.9% in December 2025), a 6.5% drop in jet fuel prices, and a rise in the global manufacturing PMI to 51.8, the highest in 18 months.

IATA highlighted that upcoming challenges for the cargo sector include US trade policies and the escalating Middle East conflict, with the World Cargo Symposium in Lima focusing on digitalization and efficiency improvements.