On 9 October 2020, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings published rating action commentary on the sovereign credit rating of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

According to the report, Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit rating remained unchanged at BB- (stable).

It is worth noting that since March of this year, the Agency has lowered ratings in revised reports by more than 65 percent.

The factors that support our country's sovereign credit rating include a Goverment balance sheet, a moderate level of public debt, and growth rates. Thus, weak institutional and governance levels, high inflation, and low gross domestic product (GDP) per capita were identified as factors limiting the credit rating of the Republic.

According to the Agency, Uzbekistan, unlike other countries, will be free from the economic downturn in 2020. Growth is expected to reach 0.5 percent after a 0.2 percent decline in Q1 2020. Also,through fiscal measures, the economic growth in the Republic in 2021-2022 will be 5-5.5 per cent due to the continued support of consumption and investment in the economy and the restoration of the economy of our main trading partners.

The report highlighted that a high level of investment and a controlled program of systemic reforms led to a positive post-crisis growth of the country's young population.

Fitch also considers that the government remains committed to the reform programme initiated in 2017 to improve macroeconomic stability and growth prospects, decrease the state's role in the economy and address institutional and governance weaknesses. The Agency informed about the government's strategy to reform the banking sector until 2025 and plans to privatize state-owned enterprises for 2020-2021.

The Agency also pointed out that the share of world Bank management indicators in sovereign credit ratings is higher, emphasizing that Uzbekistan's role in these indicators is low, which indicates insufficient institutional capacity, uneven application of legislation and a high level of corruption.

The Agency notes that Uzbekistan's sovereign credit rating (including the rating Outlook) may be upgraded in the following cases:

- when achieving high economic growth that ensures macroeconomic stability;

- with significant improvements in governance standards, such as “rule of law”, “accounting for and accountability of public opinion”, “ quality of regulation” and “control of corruption”;

- with a significant increase in fiscal and external reserves of public finances.