Fitch Affirms Uzbekistan National Bank’s ‘BB’ Rating

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — On 13 March 2026, Fitch Ratings confirmed the long-term issuer default ratings (IDRs) of the National Bank for Foreign Economic Activity of Uzbekistan in foreign and local currency at ‘BB’ with a stable outlook. The bank’s Viability Rating (VR) remained at ‘b+’.

Fitch noted that the long-term IDRs reflect potential state support, as captured in the bank’s Government Support Rating (GSR) of ‘bb’. The VR of ‘b+’ exceeds the operational environment by one notch, reflecting the bank’s market-leading position, strong profitability, capitalization, and adequate liquidity. However, vulnerabilities remain due to high credit concentration and asset dollarization.

State support is indicated by the alignment of the GSR and long-term IDRs with Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating, given full state ownership, systemic significance, and the bank’s role in implementing government policy. Fitch also highlighted improvements in Uzbekistan’s banking environment over the past five years and expects continued reductions in structural risks as regulation and governance quality strengthen.

The National Bank remains the country’s largest bank, holding 16% of total banking sector assets at the end of 2025. Its core operations focus on corporate and retail lending, while maintaining credit exposure to state-owned enterprises. High borrower concentration and 62% dollarization of gross loans affect the risk profile, but asset quality remains stable, with non-performing loans below 5% and reserves covering 201% of problem assets.

Profitability is strong, with Fitch estimating operating profit at 4% of risk-weighted assets in 2025, expected to continue in 2026. Capitalization remains robust, with Fitch Core Capital at 19% and Tier 1 ratio rising to 17.8% at mid-2025.

The bank’s funding primarily comes from external borrowings (50% of liabilities), government sources (28%), and third-party deposits (22%). The loan-to-deposit ratio fell to 241%, and liquidity covered one-quarter of liabilities.

Fitch indicated the bank’s rating remains sensitive to changes in Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating and the government’s capacity to support the bank. Upgrades may be possible with further improvements in the operating environment and maintenance of a stable financial profile.

Short-term ratings were affirmed at ‘B’, and senior unsecured bonds are aligned with the long-term foreign currency IDR.