EBRD Raises Uzbekistan’s GDP Growth Forecast for 2026 to 6.5%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has raised its GDP growth forecast for Uzbekistan in 2026 to 6.5%, according to the February regional economic prospects report. In its previous September forecast, the bank had projected economic growth at 6%.

According to the EBRD, Uzbekistan’s GDP accelerated to 7.7% in 2025, up from 6.7% in 2024. Looking ahead, the bank expects growth to moderate to 6% in 2027. The report highlights that Uzbekistan remains one of the fastest-growing economies in Central Asia.

The review also focuses on the country’s foreign trade. Uzbekistan ranks among the countries with the highest relative growth in exports to the United States, particularly in precious metals. The increase in exports is attributed not only to higher prices but also to larger shipment volumes, which analysts suggest may be linked to rising demand for components used in the artificial intelligence sector.

Other international financial institutions offer comparable but slightly more conservative projections. The World Bank, in its January “Global Economic Prospects” report, maintained a 6% GDP growth forecast for 2026. The Asian Development Bank projects 6.7% growth, while the International Monetary Fund forecasts 6%.

Official data from the National Statistics Committee show that Uzbekistan’s economy grew by 7.7% in 2025.

Under the country’s state budget law, authorities anticipate GDP growth of 6.6% in 2026, closely aligning with the estimates of the EBRD and other international institutions.