CIS PMs to discuss forecast for energy consumption till 2020

The information-analytical department of the CIS Executive Committee said that the forecast was developed by the Institute of Energy Research of the Russian Science Academy under the CIS Executive Committee. Data of the Intergovernmental statistics committee of the CIS, statistics bodies of the member states of the CIS, international organizations and forecasts of the Institute of Energy Research of Russian Science Academy.

The forecast is directed at forming forecast balance of the energy resource of the CIS based on analysis of economic and social development, dynamics of production, consumption of imported and exported energy resources. His will help to form cleared forecast of the balance on energy resources.

The draft document includes such divisions as main regulation on forming forecast, analysis of modern state of production and consumption of energy resources of the CIS states, forecast for change of world prices to energy resources, scenarios on development of energy sectorin the CIS, etc.

According to the forecast, total energy balance of the CIS makes up about 10.2% of world oil reserves, over 31% of world gas reserves and 27% - world coal reserves.

The specialists believe that the CIS states have enough energy potential to satisfy its energy demand in any scenario of development till 2020. The CIS will increase its oil and gas export potential. So, there is need to develop corresponding infrastructure to supply energy resources to external markets.

According to the forecast, energy resources will play the key role in economic and social development of the CIS states in all three scenarios. The CIS states should modernize generating capacities and supply network system, speed up new capacities, etc. The main task is to change structure of electricity production, first of decreasing use of gas. The CIS states are considering develop nuclear energy (Belarus), solar, wind, biomass and small river energies (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan). Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikisan have plans to develop large hydro power stations.

The role of coal fuel in all three scenarios will increase and serve as alternative to gas in electricity production. Kazakhstan, Russia and Ukraine are large coal users, while Belarus and Uzbekistan are planning to expand use of coal.