CERR reports on Uzbekistan’s economic development in 1H 2024

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) – According to the Central Economic Research and Reform Center (CERR), Uzbekistan’s economy demonstrated accelerated growth in the first half of 2024. The gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 6.4% from January to June 2024, compared to a 6.2% increase in the same period of 2023.

The economies of Uzbekistan’s main trading partners also showed positive dynamics. Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 3.3%, Kyrgyzstan’s by 8.1%, China’s by 5%, and Russia’s by 5% according to the Ministry of Economic Development for January-May.

Inflation in Uzbekistan for the first half of the year reached 5.2%, up from 3.5% in June 2023. The annual inflation rate reached 10.6%, compared to 9% in June 2023. Prices for food products decreased by 1.3% (compared to a 4.1% increase in June 2023), while non-food products increased by 3.3% compared to December of the previous year (3.1% increase in June 2023). The significant rise in the consumer price index was mainly due to a 21.1% increase in services prices (compared to 2.9% in June 2023) due to higher energy tariffs, with electricity, gas, and other fuels rising by 66% over six months.

The first quarter saw unprecedented investment activity (a 75% increase), which has slightly slowed but remains high. From January to June, investments in fixed assets grew by 37%. Centralized investments increased by 21%, while decentralized investments rose by 39%. Foreign direct investments grew by 47%. Investments from enterprises increased by 4.3%, and investments from the population rose by 3.9%, though investments from banks decreased by 27%.

The share of centralized investments decreased to 10.7%, while decentralized investments increased to 89.3%.

All economic sectors showed growth. Agricultural output grew by 3.8% (same as January-June 2023). Crop and livestock production increased by 3.8%, forestry by 2.8%, and fishing by 4.6%.

Industrial production increased by 7.8% (compared to 5.6% in January-June 2023). Manufacturing output rose by 9.4% (6.3% in January-June 2023), while mining production grew by 0.5%. Growth rates decreased in electricity and gas supply, air conditioning, and water supply sectors, with electricity and gas supply growing by 4.3% (9.9% in January-June 2023) and water supply and waste management by 0.3% (3.6% in January-June 2023).

Construction output grew by 10.1% (5.6% in January-June 2023).

The volume of market services increased by 12.9% (12.3% in the same period of the previous year). The highest growth was observed in information and communication sectors (20%), financial services (20%), education (22%), real estate services (13%), and healthcare (11%). Retail turnover increased by 8.4% (6.9% in January-June 2023).

In the transport sector, the volume of services grew by 6.5%, cargo turnover by 4%, and passenger turnover by 5.3%.

The growth rate of foreign trade volumes slowed compared to last year. The foreign trade turnover increased by 8.5% to $32 billion (20% in January-June 2023). Exports grew by 5.5% to $13 billion (25% in January-June 2023), while imports increased by 10.6% to $18.8 billion (17% in January-June 2023).

From January to June 2024, the export of fuel and energy materials increased by 40%, chemical products by 33%, services by 26%, and raw materials by 8%. Conversely, the export of food products decreased by 2.3%, industrial goods by 3%, and various finished products by 13%.

Imports of fuel and energy materials rose by 66%, services by 57%, finished products by 7.4%, machinery and transport equipment by 5.6%, and industrial goods by 2.1%.