CERR Forecasts Robust 7–7.2% GDP Growth for Uzbekistan in Q1 2026

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has released its socio-economic outlook for the first quarter of 2026, predicting that Uzbekistan’s economy will maintain a steady growth trajectory of approximately 7%.

The forecast follows a strong performance in 2025, during which the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 7.7%, surpassing the 6.7% growth recorded in 2024. CERR analysts noted that their previous year's projections achieved a high degree of precision, with a deviation of only 0.2 percentage points from actual figures.

Methodology and Key Drivers

To calculate the Q1 2026 outlook, CERR utilized a dynamic factor model aggregating 35 key monthly and weekly indicators of current economic activity. The analysis identifies five primary contributors to the projected growth:

• Business Activity: Contributing 3.1 percentage points (p.p.)
• Monetary and Financial Sector: Contributing 1.0 p.p.
• Banking Transactions: Contributing 0.9 p.p.
• Industrial Production: Contributing 0.6 p.p.
• Retail Trade: Contributing 0.3 p.p.

Machine Learning and Consumer Trends

In an alternative modeling approach using machine learning, CERR analyzed 250 weekly Google search activity indicators across 20 categories. This model suggests a slightly higher growth rate of 7.2% for the quarter.

Data from January 2026 revealed significant year-on-year increases in digital and financial engagement: search queries in the "Internet and Telecommunications" category rose by 19.3%, "Finance" by 7.9%, and "Shopping" by 5.2%.

Strategic Outlook

By synthesizing both analytical approaches, CERR established a forecast corridor of 7–7.2% for Q1 2026, a marked improvement over the 6–6.4% forecast range issued for the same period in 2025. This positive momentum is expected to be sustained by an improving business climate, heightened investment activity, and the continued expansion of the industrial and service sectors.