Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) —  In its updated report, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has revised its forecast for Uzbekistan's GDP growth in 2024. The report highlights that the sustained economic growth is driven by active development in key sectors and increased investments.

According to the CERR's forecast, Uzbekistan’s GDP is expected to grow by 6.5% in 2024. This forecast is based on extensive data analysis, current economic trends, and developments in key sectors.

As of the end of the third quarter of 2024, Uzbekistan’s economy is showing stable growth rates. According to the State Statistics Agency, the country’s economy grew by 6.6% in the first nine months of 2024.

The Business Activity Index (BAI), calculated by the CERR, showed a significant increase in October, up 17.7% compared to the previous month and 33.8% compared to the same period last year. In November, the BAI growth remained impressive at 23.9% year-on-year.

Analysis of Data and Current Economic Trends

Based on Google Trends data, there has been a noticeable increase in activity in the fourth quarter of this year. Search queries in categories such as "automotive vehicles" rose by 6.1%, "business and industry" by 10.0%, and "shopping" by 12.8%. These figures indicate a significant rise in consumer interest and activity.

Overall, based on a thorough analysis of current economic trends and the aforementioned factors, the forecasted GDP growth for Uzbekistan in 2024 is 6.5%, with a range of 6.3–6.7%.

Key Drivers of Economic Growth

The stable economic growth is attributed to several key factors. First, the dynamic development of industry, evidenced by increased production volumes and infrastructure modernization. Second, the rise in investments in fixed capital, contributing to job creation and an improved business environment. Third, the strengthening of the services sector, which has shown significant activity and a wide range of offerings.

These factors form a solid foundation for continued economic growth through the end of the year and create optimistic expectations, including from international organizations.

In particular, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects GDP growth of 5.6%, the World Bank (WB) forecasts 6.0%, and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) also predicts a 6.0% increase. These assessments are based on active investment activity and ongoing structural reforms.

Forecasted Weekly GDP Growth for Uzbekistan in 2024

The forecasts were made using two approaches: “Nowcasting,” based on highly detailed data flows, and “Financial Programming and Policy” (FPP), which looks at the key characteristics of macroeconomic sectors (real, fiscal-budgetary, external, and monetary) and explains their interconnections with other sectors of the economy.