Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) - The number of transactions in the real estate market shows moderate growth, which indicates a recovering purchasing power of the population in the country. At the same time, the estimates of CERR experts show that the share of the population that can afford to purchase housing on a mortgage is 26%.

The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) regularly analyzes changes in demand in the real estate market in Uzbekistan.

In November 2021, 22.5 thousand contracts for the purchase and sale of real estate were concluded in Uzbekistan, which is 4% more than in October (21.6 thousand). The sharp increase in this indicator compared to November 2020 (14.4%) and November 2019 (40.6%) indicates that the demand in the housing market is still very high.

The highest growth rates of purchase and sale of real estate were observed in Surkhandarya (22.9%), Namangan (17.3%), Khorezm (14.3%) regions. At the same time, a slight decrease was recorded in Andijan (14.1%), Samarkand (6.6%) and Tashkent (3.7%) regions.

As shown by the analysis of CERR, average housing prices in the secondary market in November increased by 1.2 percent compared to October. The largest increase in prices was observed in Tashkent (3.2%), Samarkand (3.1%) and Khorezm (3.0%) regions, while in Navoi housing prices decreased (-1.4%).

As for cities, the highest housing prices were recorded in Tashkent (US$753 per square meter), Samarkand (US$553) and Navoi (US$418), while the lowest prices were in Nukus (US$277), Karshi (US$289) and Gulistan (US$289).

The average price of housing in the secondary market in the city of Tashkent increased by 1.3% compared to the previous month. The highest growth in housing prices was observed in Mirzo-Ulugbek (3.5%) and Mirabad (3.2%) districts, and the lowest growth rates were observed in Uchtepa (0.1%), Bektemir (0.7%) and Yashnabad. (-0.6%) areas.

On the basis of average prices for housing in the capital and regional centers, experts calculated the share of households that have the opportunity to obtain mortgage loans (without subsidies) for the purchase of housing in the secondary market.

When calculating the share of the population that is eligible for a mortgage loan for the purchase of housing, it is assumed that up to 50% of the family’s income is directed to a mortgage loan, to buy housing with an area of 62 sq. m., the loan term is 20 years, and the initial payment is 30%.

In terms of regions, the analysis showed that in Samarkand (13%), Namangan (19%) regions and Tashkent city (15%), the share of households with the opportunity to purchase housing on a mortgage is low due to high housing prices.

Taking into account current prices, the opportunity to purchase housing on a mortgage basis in Ferghana (35%), Karakalpakstan (33%) and Navoi (32.9%) is higher than in other regions.

According to experts, in Uzbekistan, the share of people who can afford to buy housing on the secondary market on a mortgage loan is 26%.

In general, the volume of mortgage loans to individuals in January-November 2021 amounted to 8 trillion soums. The resources allocated by the Ministry of Finance for housing construction through mortgage loans increased 3 times by 3.9 trillion soums (1.3 trillion soums in 2020).

Khalilullokh Khamidov, 

head of the CERR sector