Central Bank of Uzbekistan Maintains Key Interest Rate at 14%

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — At its meeting on 28 January 2026, the Board of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan decided to keep the key policy rate unchanged at 14% per annum.

The Central Bank noted that economic activity in 2025 exceeded initial expectations, largely driven by sustained aggregate demand. Inflation continues its downward trend, with the slowdown in consumer goods prices being broad-based and stable.

At the same time, relatively high inflation persists in the services sector due to demand-side factors, and prices for certain food products have increased, creating some risks for further stable reductions in overall inflation. Under these conditions, maintaining tight monetary policy is considered a necessary measure to anchor inflation on a sustainable downward trajectory.

The Central Bank emphasized that, should the continued slowdown in inflation and inflation expectations persist in the coming quarters, and taking into account adjustments in regulated prices, a revision of the key rate downward could be possible while maintaining tight monetary conditions.

By the end of December 2025, annual inflation was in line with forecasts, decreasing to 7.3%. A significant contribution to this decline came from slowing core inflation under the influence of tight monetary policy, a strengthened exchange rate, and trends in import prices. In December, core inflation fell to 5.7% year-on-year. Inflation in services, despite some moderation, remains above the overall rate due to sustained demand. At the same time, inflation expectations in the economy stopped declining in December and showed a slight increase, indicating the continued need for tight monetary conditions for an extended period.

According to updated forecasts from the Central Bank, inflation in 2026 is expected to be around 6.5%.

Support for household incomes and consumer demand this year will continue to come from high investment activity, fiscal spending, and increased remittance flows. At the same time, risks related to the supply of certain basic food products, as well as potential disruptions during the winter period, may put upward pressure on food and service prices in the coming months.

Despite ongoing uncertainty in the external economic environment, the overall impact of external factors is expected to remain relatively moderate. Inflation among key trading partners has shifted to a downward trend, while global economic growth has exceeded expectations. Continued price growth in precious metals is expected to contribute a significant share of export revenue and budget income.

Support for foreign currency supply in the domestic market through export earnings, foreign borrowing, and rising remittances strengthened the Uzbekistani sum by 6.9% in 2025. This helped reduce imported inflationary pressure, lower the level of dollarization in the economy, and decrease debt service costs. In the coming months, favorable external conditions and a real effective exchange rate close to equilibrium are expected to persist.

Against the backdrop of sustained economic and investment activity, economic growth is projected at 6.5–7% for the year. Liquidity absorption operations in the banking system surplus have helped maintain money market rates near the key policy rate, at 13.5–13.8%. As a result, positive real interest rates continue to encourage savings in the national currency and remain an important factor in maintaining tight monetary conditions.

Maintaining the key rate at its current level is expected to help contain inflationary risks amid high aggregate demand, including fiscal stimulus and rapid growth in retail lending. The Central Bank will continue to closely monitor inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, aggregate demand, and external risks.

The Central Bank’s monetary policy will remain focused on achieving the 5% inflation target in the medium term, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and preserving household purchasing power.

The next Board meeting to review the key rate is scheduled for 18 March 2026.