Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The overall inflation rate in Uzbekistan is projected to reach approximately 7–8% by the end of 2025, according to updated forecasts from the Central Bank.

The key factor influencing monetary policy will be the extent of secondary effects from various changes on core inflation, the regulator’s report states.

Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to maintain a strong GDP growth rate, reaching around 6% by the end of the year. Private investment will play a crucial role in sustaining this momentum by expanding the supply of goods and services.

However, risks of rising global food prices in the coming quarters could exert additional inflationary pressure through import channels.

The report also highlights that the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate of the national currency observed in late 2024 was temporary. This was due to the depreciation of certain trading partners’ currencies and a higher inflation rate in Uzbekistan compared to them.

According to the regulator’s projections, the real effective exchange rate will return to its medium-term trend in the second half of 2025 as inflation subsides.

In the medium term, the Central Bank intends to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy to ensure inflation steadily declines to the target level of 5%.

However, the degree of monetary policy tightness may be adjusted if aggregate demand and inflationary pressures in the economy increase beyond expectations.