Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- All Central Asian countries, without exception, stand for sustainable and long-term peace in Afghanistan. Deputy Director of the International Institute of Central Asia (MICA) Bakhtiyor Mustafayev shared such an assessment at an international conference on "Problems of regional security in Central Asia after August 2021", organized on 14 December by MICA and the Russian Foundation for the Support of Public Diplomacy named after A. Gorchakov.

Undoubtedly, the withdrawal of coalition troops from Afghanistan and the arrival of new authorities in this country determined a number of new trends, the significance of which, most likely, has yet to be comprehended.

After the transfer of control in Afghanistan to the Taliban, the media and social networks of both regional and foreign countries are full of articles about the alarming picture of the future of Central Asia associated with the threats and risks of extremism and terrorism, the influx of refugees, illegal drug trafficking and uncontrolled weapons left after the withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan.

Before trying to answer how realistic these threats are, and to what extent they can influence the dynamics of security in Central Asia, it is important to study the current processes taking place both in Afghanistan itself and in the region, and around the settlement of the Afghan crisis.

I. Today exactly 4 months have passed since the Taliban came to power. What has changed in the country? What is the socio-political and socio-economic situation in Afghanistan? In this context, the following factors are noteworthy.

First, while the Taliban remains the only force capable of controlling Afghanistan, the management and holding of the country’s territory becomes a challenge for the Taliban. This is primarily due to the observed split in the ranks of the Taliban, caused by tribal disunity. In particular, the confrontation around the issue of readiness to make concessions for the sake of achieving international legitimacy is intensifying today.

Second, the attitude of the Afghan population towards the Taliban is ambiguous. The refugees we saw from pictures in the media trying to fly from Kabul airport or cross the Spin-Boldak-Chaman checkpoint on the border with Pakistan were mainly people who collaborated with the coalition forces, or representatives of the intelligentsia, which not only rejects Taliban, but also did not support previous governments. Most of the population, tired of the war, does not resist the Taliban and hopes for peace, regardless of who will rule the country.

Third, the worsening socio-economic situation. As a result of a sharp reduction in external financial assistance as a result of the withdrawal of coalition troops, the continued prohibition on the use of state assets held in foreign banks, as well as the consequences of the drought, which occurs for the second time in the last 4 years, the number of unemployed is growing and the standard of living is rapidly falling.

Fourth, the intensification of the activities of international terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. According to the UN special envoy to Afghanistan D. Lyons, this year the number of terrorist attacks committed by ISIS fighters has increased 5.5 times, increasing from 60 to 334. Moreover, the geography of their activities has expanded, they are already present in all 34 provinces. Although at the beginning of the year, the area of their influence included 25 provinces.

Fifth, the growth of drug production. According to the UN, the volume of opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan in 2020 increased by 37% compared to 2019. This year, the volume of opium production in Afghanistan increased by 8% and reached 6.8 thousand tons. According to local farmers, "the Taliban can ban the cultivation and production of drugs if they want, but given the current economic situation in the country, they do not plan to do so yet."

II. Regarding regional processes against the background of the development of the situation in Afghanistan, the following important points draw attention to themselves.

First, the Central Asian countries have been living in the neighborhood of Afghanistan for several years. Especially noteworthy is the fact that the states of the region have been preparing for the current situation since 2014, when the issue of the withdrawal of American troops first began to be considered at a serious level.

In this regard, along with strengthening state borders, increasing the combat readiness of the army through the intensification of military-technical cooperation with foreign partners, some Central Asian countries independently established negotiations with the Taliban before their coming to power.

Despite all the pessimistic forecasts, a massive flow of refugees to the countries of Central Asia is not expected. Basically, Afghan refugees use the stable routes formed to this day in the direction of Iran and Pakistan. Moreover, Central Asia is not attractive both economically and in terms of the legal environment created for refugees. For example, in 2020 most Afghans were accepted by the EU (40 thousand), Australia (11 thousand), Great Britain (9 thousand).

Secondly, today the countries of the region act as the main trade and economic partners of Afghanistan, and also make a significant contribution to ensuring food and energy security. In particular, Uzbekistan covers 52% of Afghan electricity imports. While Tajikistan - 18%, as well as Turkmenistan - 15%.

Third, the intensification of regional cooperation. Thanks to the new regional policy of Uzbekistan, there is a dynamic development of interstate relations between the Central Asian countries in the spheres of politics, economy and culture, which also made it possible to establish a close dialogue on topical issues of regional security, including the Afghan crisis. This is evidenced by the coordination of actions and the consolidation of the positions of the Central Asian countries within the framework of regional and international organizations to resolve the Afghan problem. Despite the difference in approaches to resolving the situation in Afghanistan, the states of the region have close and similar positions. All, without exception, are in favor of a sustainable and long-term peace in Afghanistan.

Fourth, the efforts of the countries of the region in the fight against extremism and terrorism require special attention. If we analyze the policies of the states of the region, we can see the transformation of their behavior. In the early 90s. The countries of Central Asia have been engaged in neutralizing the consequences of terrorism, but in recent years they have been paying attention to the implementation of a comprehensive strategy covering preventive measures, assistance in the socialization of those who joined the destructive forces, as well as raising the level of religious education.

Despite the fact that in the Central Asian countries 90% of the population is Muslim, in contrast to the Afghans who have been living in war conditions for more than four decades, the inhabitants of the countries of the region live in a secular society and know from their own experience what terrorist acts that have taken place in almost all states of the region.

From this point of view, it would be a mistake to think that a possible ideological expansion from Afghanistan will be supported by broad representatives of the Central Asian society.

III. Regarding the events around Afghanistan, the most important question here is how the withdrawal of US troops will affect the geopolitical configuration in Central Asia, which country or group of countries can play the role of the United States in Afghanistan, as well as the prospects for the recognition of the Taliban.

Regarding the first question, I would like to note that the US policy in Central Asia, which was mainly viewed through the prism of the Afghan issue, will remain unchanged. This is evidenced by the dynamics of cooperation within the framework of the C5 + 1 format, which was created to interact with Central Asia after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

As for the second question, despite attempts to pursue a more active policy in the Afghan direction, both regional countries and other external actors do not have the political, economic and military capabilities that would ensure their dominant position in Afghanistan. Nevertheless, it is possible that the country, which will have more influence in the IRA, will significantly strengthen its position in Central Asia.

The issue of recognizing the Taliban is still open. Despite the fact that all the countries of Central Asia and other neighbors of Afghanistan, and external forces involved in resolving the Afghan crisis, are engaged in a dialogue with the Taliban and have restored economic ties, no one is in a hurry to officially recognize them so far.

The observed tactical alliances and the continued selective approach of world powers to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan will not be crowned with success, for the simple reason that countries that are not included in one or another group will advance their own agenda, which may not always reflect the interests of other players.

Nevertheless, the issue of obtaining legitimacy from the international community is becoming a matter of time.

IV. In general, what trends are observed today:

- strengthening of challenges and threats against the background of the worsening socio-economic situation in Afghanistan;

- a possible weakening of the influence of the Taliban within the country as a result of contradictions in the ranks of the movement;

- the most prepared for external challenges, consolidated Central Asia;

- continuation of geopolitical competition in Central Asia;

- lack of a common approach among the countries involved in resolving the situation in Afghanistan.

All of the above factors increase the uncertainty about the prospects for the development of the situation in Afghanistan, which will have an impact not only on regional, but also on international security.

In this regard, in order to ensure a long-term and sustainable peace, coordinated approaches are needed at the regional and international levels, which was repeatedly stated from the highest tribunes by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Achieving peace in Afghanistan is not a matter of one day, it is a long-term process that depends both on the new Afghan authorities and on the international community.

The development and adoption of a Plan of Practical Measures for the medium term (5-10 years), which will indicate not only the obligations of the Taliban to fulfill the promises made earlier, but also the specific tasks of the international community aimed at creating the necessary conditions for the formation of an inclusive government, ensuring the rights and freedoms of women and ethnic minorities, effectively combating terrorism.