VEB Institute: Uzbekistan’s Economy to Maintain Over 6% Growth in the Medium Term

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to continue showing some of the highest growth rates in Central Asia in 2026–2027, despite the global slowdown, according to analysts at the VEB Institute for Research and Expertise (InVEB).

The consensus forecast anticipates GDP growth of 6.2% in 2026 and 6.1% in 2027, compared with 6.3% in 2025. InVEB’s own forecast projects GDP growth of 6.7% in 2025, 6.0% in 2026, and 6.2% in 2027.

Significant contributions to Uzbekistan’s GDP growth are expected from the development of the extractive and manufacturing industries, including machinery and light industry. Key drivers also include accelerated digitalization and the rapid expansion of the services sector, particularly transport, finance, and tourism.

Additional potential lies in deepening integration with Russia and the EAEU countries, as well as Uzbekistan’s active participation in creating new transport and logistics corridors. In the long term, investments in human capital—healthcare, education, and science—could become decisive factors for ensuring sustainable and high-quality economic development.

Inflation has slowed from 9.9% in January to 8.0% in September 2025, with the consumer price index reaching 105.1% year-to-date. InVEB estimates year-end inflation for 2025 at 8.6–8.7%, decreasing to 7.3% in 2026 and 6.0% in 2027. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan maintains its key interest rate at 14% annually to contain inflationary risks.

Domestic demand and cross-border remittances remain key growth drivers. Real household incomes rose by 9.5%, retail turnover increased by 9.2%, and remittance inflows reached US$12.1 billion (+23%) from January to August 2025.

Economic growth is also supported by construction and investment activity: construction output increased by 11%, and fixed capital investment grew by 5.5% in the first half of 2025.

External economic dynamics are positive as well: exports grew 31% in the first eight months of 2025, while imports increased by 11.8%. Non-monetary gold was the main contributor to export growth, accounting for 48.8%. The trade deficit is projected at US$9 billion, down from US$13.5 billion in 2024, with the current account balance potentially turning positive at 0.9% of GDP.

Russia remains Uzbekistan’s main export market (16.6% of exports), while China is the largest import partner (33.1%).

According to InVEB, the country’s public debt is projected at 35.6% of GDP (~US$47.8 billion) in 2025, declining to 33.7% in 2026 and 33.2% in 2027. External borrowings will be used to finance infrastructure projects and cover the budget deficit.