Uzbekistan’s Real Estate Market Accelerates in Q4 2025

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Uzbekistan's real estate market closed 2025 on a distinctly stronger note. In the fourth quarter, the number of residential purchase-and-sale transactions reached 89,700 — up 24.5% year-on-year, a marked acceleration from the 14% growth recorded in the third quarter. The figures are drawn from the quarterly review published by the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan.

For the full year, 319,500 residential transactions were registered nationwide, a 15.8% increase on 2024.

The most dynamic growth was recorded in the Bukhara (25.6%), Sirdarya (23.1%), Samarkand (19.2%), Jizzakh (17%), and Khorezm (16.4%) regions. Over the past four years, the combined share of these regions in total transaction volume has risen steadily — by a cumulative 3.6 percentage points. In Tashkent, Tashkent Region, and Fergana Region, the average growth in registered contracts stood at 15.5%. The central bank interprets this trend as evidence of housing market development in regions outside the capital, driven by infrastructure improvements and rising household incomes.

The key drivers of market activity were the expansion of mortgage lending, growth in real incomes, and increased residential construction. The volume of mortgage loans disbursed in 2025 rose 29%, reaching 21.2 trillion soums. The mortgage share of total residential transactions climbed to 22%, up from 21.3% a year earlier. In the fourth quarter, real household incomes increased by 9.2%.

Construction sector activity was reflected in commissioning volumes: the total floor area of residential buildings put into service reached 15.9 million square meters, exceeding the prior-year figure by 7.2%. The Khorezm (36%), Surkhandarya (6.7%), and Fergana (6.5%) regions led the country in new residential construction.

Price Trends

In the fourth quarter, prices in the primary and secondary apartment markets rose 5.7% and 7.9% respectively in dollar terms. In soum terms, however, the picture was considerably more subdued: the primary market registered a decline of 1.3%, while the secondary market edged up 0.7%. The divergence between the two measures reflects the appreciation of the exchange rate during the period, as well as sellers' inclination to preserve asset value in foreign currency while gradually transitioning to soum-denominated pricing and settlements.

A similar pattern is evident in the rental market: nationwide, rental rates in dollar terms rose 8.3% over the year. In Tashkent, rates have been growing since the third quarter. In soum terms, rental prices were essentially flat compared to the prior year — a reading the central bank interprets as indicating sufficient supply to meet current demand.

On the land market in Tashkent, one sotka (100 square meters) was priced at 319 million soums at end-December, down 9.4% from a year earlier. The regulator attributes the decline to structural shifts in supply composition: the number of plots on the city's outskirts increased by 22%, while supply in central districts contracted by 13%.

Buyer Preferences

A regression analysis of residential buyer preferences over 2022–2025, covering five key property characteristics, identified several consistent shifts. Using Almazar district as the base area, housing in Mirabad was priced 23.7% higher than comparable units in the base district in 2025, while Bektemir came in 24.4% lower. The gap between Almazar and the neighboring Yunusabad district, which ranged from zero to 3.5% in 2022–2023, had widened to nearly 10% by 2025.

Each additional square meter of floor area reduces the unit price by 0.1%. Upper-floor location lowers a property's value by 0.2–0.9%, though the weight of this factor has been gradually diminishing in recent years. A notable reversal has also emerged in the primary market: whereas new apartments traded at a 3–6% discount to secondary housing in 2022, by 2025 they commanded a 3% premium.

In terms of construction type, brick buildings are consistently valued 3–6% above panel-construction units. Recent years have also seen a growing premium for monolithic construction over panel. The presence of a new interior renovation added 7–8% to an apartment's value in 2024 relative to the market average.

Hedonic Price Index

To measure the net change in apartment prices in Tashkent, the Central Bank applies a hedonic regression equation incorporating a time variable. The index is updated monthly using a rolling 12-month window and is based at 100 for the reference period of February 2022.

According to the calculations, prices rose continuously through early 2024, reaching 136.4 points by February of that year — a gain of 36.4% in dollar terms. The index captures pure price dynamics, excluding qualitative changes in market composition, such as the development of modern residential buildings or an increase in supply in prestigious districts. Following a modest correction, the index resumed its upward trajectory from mid-2025 and reached 137.4 points by year-end.

In parallel, the central bank calculates a combined price index that blends the primary and secondary market segments using weights based on the volume of listings across the city. A comparison of the two indices points to high correlation and closely aligned readings in recent years. Beginning in October 2025, however, the hedonic index has been showing higher growth rates — a divergence the regulator attributes to structural shifts in the market, specifically the rising share of economy-class housing in total supply, which influenced overall dynamics in the fourth quarter.