Uzbekistan’s Economic Growth Forecast Raised to 7.5% in 2025 by CERR

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has upgraded its forecast for Uzbekistan’s GDP growth in 2025 to 7.5%.

The revised estimate is 0.8 percentage points higher than the June projection, reflecting the country’s sustained high economic growth momentum.
Strong Current Indicators

According to the National Statistics Committee, Uzbekistan’s economy expanded by 7.6% in the first nine months of 2025.

Key growth drivers include industry, services, agriculture, construction, and foreign trade. Exports grew by one-third, while overall trade increased by nearly 25%. Investment volumes rose by approximately 15%, and remittances grew by 25% compared to the previous year.

CERR’s Business Activity Index showed significant growth in October, up 34.2% year-on-year.
2025 Forecast

Considering current macroeconomic trends, CERR projects Uzbekistan’s GDP growth at 7.5% for 2025.

The forecast range is 7.3–7.7%. The most significant growth factors include enterprise activity, the housing market, industrial output, and banking operations. Behavioral indicators, such as Google search trends, were also analyzed. Between January and October, interest increased in categories like “automotive” (+3%), “business and industry” (+5.9%), “shopping” (+8.1%), and “finance” (+9.5%).

Use of Nowcasting Models

The forecast is based on advanced nowcasting models, which enable rapid assessment of economic dynamics using over 30 key indicators across industry, services, construction, trade, finance, and consumer demand for 2017–2025.

The macro-analytics system, developed jointly by CERR and the Swiss KOF Institute, is applied in Uzbekistan in real time to monitor GDP and enhance the quality of economic policy.

International Assessments

The International Monetary Fund forecasts Uzbekistan’s economic growth at 7.3% in 2025, the World Bank at 6.2%, and the Asian Development Bank at 6.6%.

Comparisons between international and national forecasts confirm the validity of CERR’s assessment, which takes into account both structural and behavioral factors.