Uzbekistan Strengthens Efforts on Industrial Decarbonization and Emission Reduction

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — On 25 September 2025, the Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) presented an analytical review of greenhouse gas emission dynamics, climate risks, and prospects for industrial decarbonization in Uzbekistan. The study covers both current trends and long-term scenarios for the country’s low-carbon development.

On the same day, Tashkent hosted a roundtable titled “Uzbekistan on the Path to Net Zero: A Macroeconomic Assessment of Emissions and Prospects for Industrial Decarbonization.” The event brought together representatives of IDDRI, the OECD SIPA project, international organizations, as well as relevant ministries and government agencies.

The roundtable was held within the framework of CERR–IDDRI cooperation under the OECD SIPA project, which provides for a comprehensive analysis of Uzbekistan’s carbon potential, the use of modern assessment models, and the study of international practices.

Global and Regional Context

According to the study, global greenhouse gas emissions reached 53 billion tons in 2023, 15.6% higher than in 2010. Central Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change: over the past two decades, the region’s average temperature has risen by 1.5°C, water levels in the Amu Darya have fallen by 30% and in the Syr Darya by 10%. The number of climate-related risks has multiplied 140 times over the past decade, affecting more than 10 million people and causing cumulative damage of US$10 billion.

The World Bank projects that without adaptation measures, Uzbekistan’s economy could lose up to 10% of its GDP by 2050, leading to reduced employment and household incomes.

National Priorities

Uzbekistan’s main sources of emissions remain the energy sector (76%), agriculture (18%), industry (5%), and waste (1%). The largest contributors are methane from oil and gas (35%), CO₂ from power and heat generation (21%), industry and construction (16%), livestock (15%), and the residential sector (13%).

The government has set ambitious goals for 2030:

– reduce the carbon intensity of the economy by 35% compared with 2010 levels,
– halve the energy intensity of GDP,
– increase the share of renewable energy in the energy mix to 40%,
– plant 200 million trees annually.

At the same time, corporate responsibility is being strengthened: state-owned enterprises are introducing ESG and CSR reporting and establishing emissions monitoring systems.

Prospects

Experts estimate that by 2030 electricity demand in Uzbekistan will reach 120 billion kWh, and accelerated adoption of renewables will be key to reducing pressure on the energy system and limiting emissions growth.

The findings highlight Uzbekistan’s substantial progress in reducing carbon intensity and laying the foundation for a transition to a low-carbon growth model. Priority areas include the decarbonization of energy, transport, construction, and industrial production based on advanced technologies and international experience.

Conclusions

The roundtable confirmed the importance of developing a long-term low-carbon strategy with not only environmental but also socio-economic significance.

Implementation of these measures will enable Uzbekistan to strengthen the resilience of its national economy and improve quality of life in the face of global climate challenges.