Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — As of 5 June 2025, the US dollar is trading at 12,810 Uzbek soums. Over the past week, the national currency strengthened by 0.12% against the dollar.

This follows previous weekly gains of 0.56% and 0.65%, respectively, indicating that the soum has largely recovered from its spring downturn and is now showing relatively stable performance.

In May 2025, the soum appreciated by 0.53% against the dollar, with a year-to-date gain of around 0.60%. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) recently revised its inflation forecasts upward for the coming two years, as outlined in its Q1 monetary policy report.

Inflation accelerated more sharply than expected in the first quarter, driven by rising consumer demand and persistent supply-side pressures. As a result, the CBU now anticipates a slower pace of disinflation than previously projected.

The inflation forecast for 2025 has been raised to 8% (up from the earlier 7.5–8% range), and for 2026 to 5–6% (versus the previous 5%). The 5% inflation target is now expected to be achieved in the second half of 2027. The central bank continues to pursue a tight monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation through the latter half of 2025. However, in case of renewed inflationary pressure, the CBU is prepared to raise its key policy rate, which currently stands at 14% annually since March 20.

While these developments pose moderate headwinds for the soum, the currency remains on a firm footing.

According to Anna Bodrova, analyst at Alpari, the USD/UZS exchange rate is expected to remain within the range of 12,780 to 12,900 over the coming week.