Uzbek Regions’ Growth Mapped via Satellite Data

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Center for Economic Research and Reforms (CERR) has presented the results of an analysis of economic activity across the country’s regions and cities for 2020–2025, based on satellite nighttime light data (Nighttime Lights, NTL).

According to the study, the intensity of nighttime illumination directly correlates with the level of economic activity and the development of urban infrastructure. The findings demonstrated a high degree of consistency with official statistics.

Based on estimates using data from NASA, nominal GDP per capita growth in Uzbekistan between 2020 and 2025 amounted to 80.3%, equivalent to an average annual increase of 15.8%. Over this period, the indicator rose from US$2,090 to US$3,887. By comparison, official statistics show growth of 81.8% with an average annual rate of 16.1%, from US$2,048 to US$3,881.

Regional and City Dynamics

The most significant increase in gross regional product (GRP) per capita among regions was recorded in Tashkent, where the figure rose by approximately US$5,000 to reach US$9,300 by the end of 2025 (US$9,200 according to official data).

High GRP per capita levels were also observed in several large and medium-sized cities. In Navoi, the показатель reached US$9,300; in Zarafshan — US$7,900; in Samarkand — US$7,200; and in Kokand and Andijan — US$6,700 each. In Akhangaran, Yangiyul and Bukhara, the figure ranged between US$5,200 and US$5,800.

Significant growth in GRP per capita was also recorded at the regional level. In Tashkent Region and Navoi Region, the показатель increased by US$1,800 to around US$4,000. In Fergana Region and Syrdarya Region, growth amounted to US$1,600, reaching US$3,500 and US$3,400 respectively.

Small and Medium-Sized Cities

Among smaller and mid-sized cities, relatively high levels of economic activity were observed in Termez (US$5,100), Margilan and Chirchik (around US$5,000), as well as Namangan (US$4,800). Stable performance was also recorded in Kagan and Urgench.

District-Level Breakdown

At the district level, the highest GRP per capita growth in 2020–2025 was recorded in the Mirabad, Yakkasaray, and Chilanzar districts of the capital, where the indicator increased by US$7,100, US$6,300, and US$5,600 respectively. As a result, GRP per capita in these districts exceeded US$10,000—nearly three times the national average.

High growth rates were also observed in other areas, including Karmana district (2.5-fold increase), as well as Yashnabad and Bektemir districts (2.4-fold), and Sergeli, Yangihayot, and Mirzo-Ulugbek districts (2.3-fold).

Urbanization and Expansion of Growth Areas

Satellite data analysis also made it possible to assess urbanization processes. Between 2020 and 2025, the number of areas with high nighttime light intensity (NTL above 10), typical of urban agglomerations, increased from 22 to 31. The average GRP per capita in these zones rose from US$3,800 to US$7,000.

At the same time, the number of districts with low illumination levels (NTL below 1) decreased from 129 to 85, indicating that 44 districts transitioned toward an urban type of development. In these areas, nighttime light intensity increased more than 2.5 times, while GRP per capita rose from US$1,700 to US$3,200.

Conclusion

The findings confirm the high effectiveness of using satellite nighttime light data as an additional tool for analyzing economic activity.

This approach expands the возможности for real-time monitoring of regional socio-economic development, helps identify new growth points, and supports more targeted allocation of government support in infrastructure and investment.