Trade, IT, and Media Lead in Optimism: 81% of Workers Expect Income Growth in Uzbekistan

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Retail workers, IT professionals, and media employees emerged as the most optimistic regarding their future earnings: in these sectors, 81% of respondents expect their incomes to rise over the next year. These findings come from a survey conducted by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan based on the results of the third quarter of 2025.

Overall, consumer sentiment in the third quarter remained positive amid continued macroeconomic stability, while demand for loans showed a moderate decline. Positive expectations for income growth strengthened further, reflecting sustained public confidence in economic activity and financial stability. No significant changes were observed in spending expectations, indicating ongoing growth in consumer activity.

The propensity to save remains high, with a slight increase in the volume of savings compared to the previous quarter, demonstrating financial discipline and a cautious approach by households to maintaining stability. Despite confidence in future earnings, the population generally maintains a restrained approach to borrowing.

High economic activity positively impacted respondents’ incomes. In the third quarter, the income index rose by 1.2 points compared to the second quarter, reaching 71.9 points, which is also 1.2 points higher than in the same period of 2024. Sustained business activity, an improved labor market, rising wages, a strengthened exchange rate, and relative inflation stability supported the preservation of real purchasing power.

Expectations of income growth over the next 12 months were expressed by 67% of respondents. The share anticipating income declines decreased slightly compared to the previous quarter, while those expecting their income to remain stable stayed unchanged. Compared to the third quarter of 2024, the proportion of respondents anticipating income growth increased by 2.9 percentage points. The most significant rise in positive expectations was recorded among groups earning 3–5 million soums, 7–10 million soums, and over 20 million soums. At the same time, the share expecting income reductions fell among respondents earning 3–10 million soums and above 15 million soums.

The proportion of respondents identifying their official salary as the primary income source decreased by 6 percentage points to 62%. Meanwhile, the number of respondents with daily earnings increased, while income from property rentals declined. The structure of income from household farming, entrepreneurship, trade, remittances, other forms of employment, and scholarships, benefits, and dividends remained largely unchanged. The highest income growth expectations were reported among workers in trade, IT, media, and communal and household services. Positive sentiment was also observed in tourism, catering, and education, driven by rising tourist flows and demand for educational services. Around 65–70% of respondents in agriculture, public administration, construction, and industry also anticipate income growth, supported by seasonal work, infrastructure projects, and wage increases for certain categories of public-sector employees.

Regarding expenditures, no significant changes were recorded in the third quarter. The expenditure sub-index remained at 77.8 points, consistent with the previous quarter, influenced by the start of the school year, high domestic tourism activity, seasonal processes in agriculture and construction, and stable service expenditures. Seventy-seven percent of respondents expect their personal spending to increase over the next 12 months, unchanged from the previous quarter. Higher expectations of rising spending were typical for low- and middle-income groups, while middle- and high-income respondents showed a relatively high share anticipating a reduction in expenses. Key spending priorities remained stable: education, home renovation, vehicle purchases, and healthcare dominated across all income groups. Age-based differences were noted, with youth more likely to prioritize education and home renovation, middle-aged respondents focusing on repairs and healthcare, and those over 50 mainly allocating funds to medical and household needs.

The credit sub-index continued to decline for the second consecutive quarter, falling by 3.3 points to 63.1 in the third quarter of 2025. The share of respondents planning to take a loan over the next 12 months decreased, possibly reflecting rising debt burdens and a more cautious approach to financial risk. In the first half of 2025, overall household debt reached 33%, with 61% of borrowers struggling to service loans and 68% indicating no plans to borrow in the next six months. Increased credit intentions were only observed among respondents earning 5–7 million soums, while other categories experienced a decline. The expectation of further reduced credit demand was most pronounced among those earning 15–20 million soums and over 20 million soums. Nevertheless, the need for borrowed funds remained high, primarily related to home repairs, education, medical treatment, family events, and vehicle purchases.

The propensity to save continues to strengthen. In the third quarter of 2025, the savings sub-index rose by 0.7 points to 68.9, one point higher than the same period in 2024. The share of respondents expecting savings growth remains high, reflecting stable economic conditions and strengthening saving attitudes. From 2022 to 2025, the overall structure of savings expectations remained unchanged: the share of those without savings decreased from 41% to 38%, while those with reserves covering less than a month remained around 32%. Proportions of respondents with longer-term reserves also remained largely unchanged. Overall, savings dynamics indicate the development of financial discipline and the expansion of short-term reserve practices. Growth in deposits, particularly in national currency, confirms restored financial confidence, with term deposits in soums increasing by 45.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025.

Economic expectations remain predominantly positive. About 67% of respondents anticipate accelerated economic development, 25% expect stability, and only 9% express concerns. In total, 77% expect economic growth, while negative expectations fell to 5%, two percentage points lower than the previous quarter.

The consumer sentiment index, calculated by the Central Bank based on assessments of income, spending, credit, and savings, continues to indicate prevailing positive expectations. A reading above the neutral 50-point level reflects sustained public optimism regarding personal financial conditions and the broader economic outlook.