The FAO Food Price Index fell slightly in September, while grain forecasts remain positive

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported a modest decline in its Food Price Index in September, driven by falling sugar and dairy prices.

According to the FAO report released on Friday, the index averaged 128.8 points, down from a revised 129.7 points in August, yet still 3.4% higher than in September 2024.

Trends by food group

Grains: The index fell by 0.6%. Wheat prices declined for the third consecutive month due to weak global demand and strong harvests. Corn prices dropped amid abundant supply and the temporary removal of export tariffs in Argentina. Rice fell by 0.5% due to reduced purchases by the Philippines and several African countries.

Vegetable oils: Down 0.7%. Lower prices for palm and soybean oils offset increases in sunflower and rapeseed oil prices.

Meat: Up 0.7%, reaching a historical high. Beef prices rose most sharply due to strong demand in the United States.

Dairy products: Fell 2.6%, with butter down 7%. The decline reflects weaker demand and higher production in Oceania.

Sugar: Dropped 4.1%, reaching its lowest level since March 2021. Contributing factors include high production in Brazil and favorable crop prospects in India and Thailand.

Grain forecasts

The FAO also released updated projections, estimating that global cereal production in 2025 could reach 2,971 million tonnes, 3.8% higher than last year—the largest annual increase since 2013.

Wheat production is expected to rise in Australia, corn in the United States, and rice in India. Global cereal consumption for 2025/26 is projected at 2,930 million tonnes.

Ending stocks may reach 900.2 million tonnes, with rice stocks expected to hit a record level. International cereal trade is forecast to increase by 2.5% to 497.1 million tonnes, mainly driven by wheat, while rice trade is projected to decline.

The FAO notes that the stock-to-use ratio is expected to remain stable at 30.6%, indicating favorable prospects for global food supply.