Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) -- Speed is one of the main factors affecting road traffic accidents. The World Health Organization claims that 1.3 million people die and 20 to 50 million are injured in road crashes each year. At the same time, it should be noted that road traffic accidents also have significant economic costs. Accidents cost the global economy US$518 billion a year, according to Investing in Road Safety: A Global Private Sector Imperative.

Experts from the Institute for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Research (IPMI) analyzed how the decrease in the maximum speed affects the traffic situation (average speed of transport) and road deaths.

As part of the study, the following results were obtained:

1) Reducing the maximum speed in cities by 10 km / h can help reduce mortality by 0.8 people per 100 thousand people per year. For Uzbekistan, this is 614 saved lives.

2) The maximum speed does not have a significant effect on the average speed. The main influence on the speed of movement and travel time is the quality of the road infrastructure.

3) A 1-point improvement in the rule of law rating could reduce road deaths by 3.3 per 100,000 population per year.

Speaking about the level of maximum permitted speed in cities, it can be noted that today the most popular are two theories. The first theory argues that lowering the speed limit will result in fewer serious crashes and fewer road deaths. Supporters of the second theory are of the opinion that slower transport speeds in cities will lead to more difficult traffic situations, and logistics in general will become less accessible and more labor intensive.

For cross-country analysis, we collected data for 140 countries. To assess the impact of the established speed limit on the average speed, the average speed indicator is presented as a dependent variable. Variables such as road traffic deaths per 100,000 population, quality of road infrastructure, urban and rural speed limits, and the rule of law were also used.

According to the results of the study, a 1-point improvement in the quality of road infrastructure can increase the average speed by 8.6 km/h, while the speed limit does not significantly affect the average speed. This is because a well-designed traffic management system and good infrastructure are the main factors that ensure an optimal average travel speed. This system, in conjunction with high-quality roads, allows you to optimally distribute vehicle flows without creating traffic jams and artificially slowing down traffic, which will provide the shortest possible time to travel from point A to point B.

The results of econometric modeling show that the maximum allowed speed in cities is positively correlated with the mortality rate. In other words, the higher the speed limit, the higher the death rate on the roads. This is due to the fact that the high speed of the car reduces the angle of view of the motorist ("tunnel effect"), increases the stopping distance of the car, the collision occurs at high speed, which often leads to death. According to the results of an econometric analysis, reducing the maximum speed of movement in cities by 10 km/h can help reduce mortality by 0.8 people per 100,000 population.

To identify a clearer causal relationship between speed and mortality, an important factor was also considered - compliance with the established speed limit. Therefore, we decided to add a traffic compliance factor. Since there is no indicator of the propensity to violate traffic rules by country, it was decided to use a proxy variable - the rule of law (RoL).

According to the results of the analysis, it was revealed that compliance with traffic rules has a significant impact on road deaths. The more citizens follow the rules (the higher the RoL), the lower the death rate on the roads. A 1-point improvement in the RoL rating could reduce road deaths by 3.3 per 100,000 population.

As proof of the above statement, we divided the countries of the world into 3 equal groups depending on the RoL indicator and built separate models in the groups with high and low indicators.

As the results show, in the first group of countries (RoL value of 0.55), speed reduction significantly reduces mortality (1.3 people per 10 km/h).

  Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that reducing the speed does reduce road deaths, while not significantly affecting the average speed of transport. However, a speed limit only has a positive effect if there is an improvement in traffic enforcement and proper infrastructure. This is an important factor in ensuring safety and maintaining an average speed.

Reducing the speed of 10 km/h on average in the world can reduce the number of road deaths by 0.8 people per 100,000 population. Within Uzbekistan, this means 614 lives saved. Moreover, in crashes at lower speeds, injury rates are reduced, which also means lower health care costs and faster recovery of people after a crash. In economic terms, the cost of road traffic injuries is estimated at about 1% of the gross domestic product in low-income countries, 1.5% in middle-income countries, and 2% in high-income countries.

Thus, in order to improve the road situation in Uzbekistan and reduce mortality on the country’s roads, the following measures are proposed:

1.Reduce the speed limit in cities and densely populated areas

2. Ensure control over compliance with speed limits by installing radars and cameras for fixing violations

3. Provide the necessary infrastructure: the quality of the roadway, the allocation of traffic lanes, the creation of artificial barriers for speeding, etc.

4. Create conditions for drivers when they can easily navigate the stream: installation of signs, lanes according to international standards, etc. In other words, it is necessary to help drivers comply with the established rules.

Odiljon Nazarov,

Senior Research Fellow, IPMI