Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Consulting firm NF GROUP has released the results of a large-scale study on the warehouse real estate market across Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and the Republic of Belarus.

As of the end of Q1 2025, the total supply of modern warehouse space in the analyzed regions reached 4.7 million square meters—an increase of 15% compared to the same period in 2024 (4.1 million sq. m). Over the past six months, 408,000 sq. m of new warehouse space was commissioned, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan accounting for 86% of that total. These two countries were also the only markets where the vacancy rate increased, while in the rest of the region, it remained minimal—no higher than 1.2%.

Central Asia retained its leading position in terms of rental rates, with Class A warehouse spaces commanding up to US$139 per square meter per year. Meanwhile, demand for third-party logistics (3PL) space dropped significantly and remained noticeable only in Kazakhstan and Armenia.

The report covers countries in Central Asia (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan), the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia), and Belarus. From October 2024 to March 2025, a total of 394,000 sq. m of new warehouse space was delivered in these countries—91% of which was completed in Q4 2024. Kazakhstan contributed 62% of all new supply, while Uzbekistan provided 27%. The remaining countries collectively accounted for just 11%.

The largest volumes of quality warehouse space are currently concentrated in Kazakhstan (1.75 million sq. m), Belarus (1.72 million sq. m), and Uzbekistan (0.5 million sq. m). Thanks to active construction, Uzbekistan has surpassed Azerbaijan to become the third-largest market in terms of supply.

The most notable increases in vacancy rates were recorded in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. In Kazakhstan, the rate rose from 1.2% to 6.6%; in Uzbekistan, from 1.1% to 4%. This was driven by the large number of new projects launched at the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025 that have yet to secure tenants. Conversely, vacancy rates continued to decline in the South Caucasus: Georgia saw a drop from 2.9% to 1.1%, Armenia from 1.3% to 0.5%, and Azerbaijan from 0.4% to 0.2%. In Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, the vacancy rate has remained at zero for over a year.

Rental rates continue to vary by region. In Central Asia, Class A warehouse rents range from US$123 to US$139 per sq. m annually (excluding VAT). In Kazakhstan, rates have stabilized at 5,250 tenge per sq. m per month, returning to Q3 2023 levels. In Uzbekistan, Class A dollar-denominated rents fell by 9%, while Class B rents increased by 12% compared to Q3 2024.

In addition to leasing, property owners in some countries offer logistics services and pallet storage. As of the end of Q1 2025, the cost of responsible storage was US$144 per pallet position per year in Kazakhstan, US$77 in Belarus, and US$103 in Armenia. No such services were recorded in the other countries during this period.

NF GROUP Partner Konstantin Fomichenko noted that warehouse markets in the analyzed regions are developing at different paces. Central Asia is experiencing rapid growth due to large-scale construction in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, leading to temporary oversupply but laying the groundwork for a resilient logistics infrastructure in the long term.

In contrast, markets in Belarus, the South Caucasus, and several other countries are characterized by zero vacancy and limited new development. Here, demand consistently outstrips supply, exerting upward pressure on rental rates. Even with an expected 2 million sq. m of new warehouse space to be delivered by 2026, some locations will likely continue to face shortages—particularly in high-consumption areas with no new projects, such as Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.

The total volume of warehouse space currently under construction or planned for delivery in 2025–2026 exceeds 1.4 million sq. m. However, much of this pipeline is build-to-suit, aimed at specific tenants, while speculative development remains limited. As a result, supply growth may fall short of fully meeting demand through the end of 2025.

According to NF GROUP analysts, Georgia is expected to see the largest volume of new development in the South Caucasus over the next two years. In Belarus, activity is likely to intensify amid sustained demand and zero vacancy. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan could also witness significant supply growth from their currently low base.

Overall, by the end of 2025, Kazakhstan is projected to lead with approximately 650,000 sq. m of new warehouse completions, followed by Georgia (105,000 sq. m), Uzbekistan (100,000 sq. m), and Belarus (95,000 sq. m).