Moody’s Forecasts Uzbekistan’s GDP Growth at 6.7% in 2025

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Moody’s Ratings has completed a periodic review of Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit ratings, as well as those of related issuers. The review was conducted on 2 December 2025 at a meeting of the rating committee, which reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in light of the relevant methodologies and recent developments.

Uzbekistan’s sovereign credit ratings, including the long-term foreign-currency rating of Ba3, are supported by strong economic growth potential and a moderate debt burden, largely on concessional terms. Constraints include low income per capita, limited competitiveness, and moderate political risk.

Moody’s notes Uzbekistan’s resilience to the spillover effects of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. While the impact on GDP and public finances has been minimal, longer-term risks remain for monetary and trade flows, the labor market, and potential secondary sanctions.

Real GDP growth is projected at 6.7% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, driven by investment, private consumption, and the expansion of the services sector. The current account deficit has narrowed to 0.2% of GDP, foreign exchange reserves have reached US$10.9 billion, and total reserves, including gold, amount to US$59.3 billion, equivalent to 13 months of imports.

Reforms in the energy sector, the establishment of an independent telecommunications regulator, and the privatization program demonstrate the government’s commitment to structural transformation. Uzbekistan continues its path toward accession to the World Trade Organization, with the process expected to be completed in early 2026.

Moody’s assesses Uzbekistan’s economic strength at “baa2,” institutional strength at “b3,” fiscal strength at “baa1,” and susceptibility to event risk at “ba.” The positive outlook reflects expectations that ongoing reforms, effective privatization, and stronger governance will enhance economic resilience and support long-term growth.

According to Moody’s, a downgrade of the rating is unlikely if the reform agenda continues, while a revision of the outlook to stable could occur in the event of significant deviations in economic or institutional policy.