Moody’s Assigns Positive Outlook to Uzbekistan’s Insurance Sector

Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Moody’s Ratings highlights that Uzbekistan’s consistently strong macroeconomic performance provides a favorable environment for the development of the country’s insurance sector.

The agency forecasts real GDP growth of around 6% in 2026–2027, down from 7.7% in 2025, but analysts note that this pace of economic activity will continue to support demand for both corporate and retail insurance products.

Moody’s also expects inflation to moderate in 2026 and fall below 7% in 2027. Persistently high interest rates will continue to boost investment income for the insurance sector, given that insurers’ investment portfolios are predominantly composed of bank deposits.

According to the agency, insurance premiums in Uzbekistan are expected to grow by more than 30% in 2026. Sustained economic growth and expanding bank lending will drive demand in motor insurance, property insurance, and credit risk coverage. As a result, premium collections and underwriting profits are projected to increase significantly over the next 12–18 months.

A further supporting factor for the sector in 2026 is the substantial increase in mandatory motor third-party liability insurance tariffs, which took effect in January. This is the first such increase since 2019 and, Moody’s notes, it should reduce loss ratios in motor insurance and improve underwriting performance.

Combined with high yields on bank deposits, these developments are expected to maintain the sector’s return on equity above 20%, although profitability will vary among individual companies.

Market capitalization is gradually strengthening due to phased increases in minimum capital requirements by the regulator, positively affecting solvency levels. At the same time, asset quality is improving, as a significant portion of insurers’ investment portfolios is held in high-yield deposits at Uzbek banks, many of which have a positive outlook. This reflects improved credit quality in the banking sector and enhances the reliability of insurers’ investment assets.

The regulatory environment and state initiatives continue to support the sector’s development. While regulation is still evolving, the National Agency for Advanced Projects is systematically addressing structural imbalances to enhance profitability, solvency, and transparency.

Key reforms include the implementation of risk-based tariff regulation, gradual increases in minimum capital requirements, measures to encourage digital transformation, and expanded access to insurance services.